I've voted republican nearly all my adult life and will be voting for Johnson this time around.

You ask two questions here. Is it a wasted vote? In the sense that we are free to vote for whom we choose, no, it isn't wasted. I'd rather vote for the guy that I actually would like to see in office, even if he has no chance, than vote for someone whom I do not agree with on a majority of issues just to vote the "lesser of two evils". I have the luxury of not living in a swing state though, so my vote doesn't really even matter. I'd rather feel proud about my vote than feeling like I need to take a shower after I leave the polls.

Your second question would be could a third party win. Eventually, all but certainly. This cycle? Not a chance. There are too many people with an interest on keeping things in a nice and tidy two party system where the major issues of spending and government intervention are shared by both parties, but they can differ on issues like contraception or gun control and are gladly assisted by the media to talk about how those issues are SO important to the future of our country. In the debate tonight for example, they will talk about that sort of thing, but I promise you neither candidate will bring up anything about the Federal Reserve or how much of our budget is spent in the military-industrial complex. Instead they focus on things like PBS funding to rile up their bases, and act like they can fix all our problems by starting with the tiniest budgetary items instead of major items such as debt interest and defense spending.

Speaking of debates, if any of you are not aware please google for more information on the League of Women Voters and presidential debates. They are a non-profit that used to run the debate, but in a nutshell the League publicly announced the reason why they stopped doing it was the corruption from the two parties. The debates now are literally run by the two major parties. After Ross Perot pulled a chunk of votes, they changed the rules so a 3rd party had to have a 15% polling in major public polls. That is enough of a hurdle since the media covers 3rd parties very little (if Johnson has 5% nationally, why does he not get mentioned 5 times for every 100 times Romney or Obama are mentioned?) Worse than that hurdle though, using Johnson as an example and remembering he has to get 15% in major polls, he is not mentioned as an OPTION on the major polls. It is the two major parties, and "other". Between the media and polling companies there currently isn't a chance in hell of a 3rd party winning, however they could affect the outcome. To the people that say "well if you are a republican and vote Johnson instead of Romney, you are just helping Obama win", assuming I was in a swing state, I would reply with "Romney didn't offer the platform I wanted to win my vote, the reason Mitt Romney did not get my vote is due solely to Mitt Romney" Speaking for myself, and following the whole primary process closely, the GOP had many many chances to throw me a bone, but they went out of their way to shit on my idea of what I want from my federal government at nearly every opportunity. This will eventually and slowly change as history has shown, but for this cycle they did not put up a candidate I would ever support.