If you've been following the news you have probably seen it mentioned at some point recently that a guy named Mahmoud al-Mabhouh was murdered in Dubai in January. He was a big noise in Hamas, and according to some sources, was involved in purchasing weapons from the Iranians for use in Gaza.

A quick summary: He was killed by a team of at least 11 people traveling under what are now known to be bogus European passports; using disguises and a tracking device, they followed him into his hotel, placed him under observation, then came into his room where they subdued him and suffocated and/or electrocuted him. CCTV security cameras in the hotel captured most of their comings and goings. They were out of the UAE by the time his body was found. Suspicion has naturally fallen in Israel's Mossad intelligence service, since they have a long history of assassinating Hamas leadership figures, they definitely wanted al-Mabhouh dead, and this particular killing was pretty sophisticated in operational terms. Some of the names used on the forged passports were found to belong to Israeli nationals who apparently had nothing to do with the killing; they were surprised and unnerved to find that their names had been used in this way. This has also caused a diplomatic flap between Israel and some of the European countries whose passports were used. The UK's Home Office has demanded that the Israeli ambassador explain how UK passports came to be used in this operation, apparently without satisfaction thus far.

Hamas and the Iranians have already accused Israel, while the Dubai police have claimed they are essentially certain that Mossad is responsible. The only article of evidence that actually links the killings to Israel, however, is the use of the identities of unwitting Israeli civilians on the hit squad's passports. Israel has followed their usual policy of refusing to confirm, deny, or comment upon any allegations (but a Mossad official has suggested that the operation was too sloppy in some ways, e.g. killing al-Mabhouh in a place with security cameras everywhere, to be the work of his agency). But bear in mind that Mossad has definitely bungled assassinations in dumb ways before, so their general reputation doesn't mean they're immune to ever screwing up. Still, some of the particulars of the case have lead commentators to suggest that the killing might have been the work not of Mossad, but of some other party trying to make it look like Mossad was responsible. The use of passports in the names of Israeli nationals is suspicious in this sense; you'd think that Mossad would have had the sense not to leave such an obvious and easily-uncovered link, even if it's not a concrete one, back to their country. Especially since this wouldn't be the first time they've gotten in trouble for pulling tricks with other country's passports. But then, again, it also wouldn't be the first dumb mistake they've ever made.

Nonetheless, other suggested culprits include: Some organized crime group that al-Mabhouh was mixed up with, double-crossed Iranians, the Palestinian National Authority/Fatah (which would suggest that Israel still had at least some role, since they back up Fatah), or rivals/enemies within Hamas itself (the group definitely has factions). PNA has accused Hamas of being behind it, claiming they have proof (but just like Dubai's alleged proof of Israeli involvement, they haven't made that evidence public). Dubai is also holding a pair of Palestinians who allegedly played a role in assisting the hit squad.

Whoever did it, they took steps to make it look like Israel was to blame (assuming it wasn't actually Israel in the first place). Some analysts have also suggested that maybe it was Mossad after all, but that they deliberately carried out the operation in a way which would then enable them to point to it's apparent sloppiness and say that they wouldn't make those mistakes and that someone must be trying to set them up. If so, clever clever. It will probably be impossible to determine for sure who was responsible until one or more of the actual hit squad members is captured (they are all still at large and probably in hiding). It's been suggested that if Israel really is behind the killing, it may be as part of a broader effort to disrupt or "decapitate" groups like Hamas and Hezbollah so that these groups won't be able to effectively mount retaliations on behalf of Iran if Israel were to launch an air strike against Iranian nuclear facilities (if true, this suggests the troubling possibility that the Israeli leadership is seriously considering doing so in the near future).

Anyhow, all this is fairly significant (as such things go) in the broader Middle East picture. For one thing it further jacks up tensions between Iran and Israel, already running extremely high over the Iranian nuclear issue and Iranian support for Hamas/Hezbollah. For another thing, if it comes out that Israel really is responsible, the Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu will have a major political embarrassment on his hands and Israel as a whole will have a major diplomatic sticking point with the countries whose passports were used. The botched assassination attempt on Khalid Mashal in 1997 (happened in Jordan, Mossad agents used Canadian passports and got caught after squirting poison into Mashal's ear) had similar political fallout and this case would probably be worse. The scandal that came out of the bungled Mashal assassination probably played a role in Netanyahu's 1999 loss in his run for reelection.

Here's the wikipedia article on the killing: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassi...oud_al-Mabhouh. For more info, go on Google news or something similar and search for "Al-Mabhouh", there are countless articles discussing various aspects of the operation.

What do you guys think of this, and it's implications for the region?