Thread: ITT We figure out how to save the US Financial market.

Originally Posted by Mr. E

Well this is an overreaction if I've ever seen one. America is nowhere near being so financially unstable that it would collapse. Nowhere near.

Im sorry, i was being kind of lethargic. If you read the wall street journal as much as i do, you would get a headache from all of the holy shit! headlines, so i was kinda spewing the stuff filled in my head. I do think that things are very bad. I do think that if we did not have the controls in place today that it would be another great depression. I do not think that it will get that bad. I do however, think that the more we intervene, and throw off the natural mechanism in the future, the harder further crises will be to stabilize in the future. I think it will be a few years coming out of this, (which is why i hope to go to grad school to wade this out). I do think things will be rough for a while, and we will see some rising unemployment in the next year. It shouldnt be anything we cannot handle though. I doubt it will exceed 9 percent, probly level off around 8

Which do you think sells more newspapers - headlines of shock and fear, or plain boring ones?

Originally Posted by djwolford

I have this theory that G.W. will try to get it legalized before he leaves office. That's about the only thing that he could do to even come close to saving his train wreck of a presidency.

But since he only has 4 months left, it would be a horrible failure. Ergo...

Originally Posted by djwolford

I have this theory that G.W. will try to get it legalized before he leaves office. That's about the only thing that he could do to even come close to saving his train wreck of a presidency.

As if that one act would make up for all he has done.

Originally Posted by MrTroy

As if that one act would make up for all he has done.

GWB hasn't been as bad of a president as the media has painted him to be. He's nowhere near the worst one, that's for sure. The American war in Iraq was exactly the same as the American war in Cuba in the late 19th and early 20th century. We went in to save a nation of people who needed saving from a tyrannical power, then set them up to be independent over a period of years after the war was done. We went in on a lie (WMDs vs. Heart saying the Spanish blew up the Maine even though it blew up on its own), we won pretty quickly but the fighting continued forever, and we made the exact same mistakes (decommissioning the local military then setting up a poor substitute in its place, not properly educating our soldiers of the fighting conditions and the native cultures, etc...). 100 years from now people will view them as exactly the same.

I'm tired of butt hurt liberals going to the exact same two things to attack Bush's entire administration. Economy and the War in Iraq. The war in Iraq wasn't that bad. We've done it before, and we'll probably do it again. In the end those people are better off, in spite of what anyone tells you. And the economy not growing as fast as it was before is equal parts blame to Bush, Congress, the Fed, and media sensationalism.

Originally Posted by djwolford

In the eyes of a large portion of the American public.....yeah.

There would be a ton of people that would start seeing him as a hero instead of a fuckup if he legalized it.

Why on earth would you want it legalized? Can you not find it? There's dealers everywhere.

If it was legalized then there would need to be an industry to back it and the three main contenders would be the tobacco industry, the alcohol industry or the pharmaceutical industry, none of which have great track records and all of which would completely fuck it up.

It's fine the way it is.

Question: Are we in a recession?

Answer: Nope.

Originally Posted by Atmosfear

Question: Are you guys iin a recession?

Answer: Nope.

Fixed.

In the eyes of a large portion of the American public.....yeah.

This same portion also happens to be barely above the voting age.

Don't let banks use morgages for collateral. Don't give speculators as much power as they do.

Originally Posted by Vengeful Scars

GO into another great depression.

Oh wait, we are in another one atm.

Shit.

QUIT FUCKING SPENDING MONEY YOU DON'T HAVE!!!!!

lol, if you think this is another great depression you need to take a walk through US history one more time

Buy guns and V8 muscle cars.

Give up. Accept Jesus Krist as your Lord and Savior for truly these are the end of times.

We aren't even in a depression, much less the great depression.

Originally Posted by Rick Scarf

on the other side of the coin though we can get through this. as it stands now, our economy is still in better shape than the savings and loans problems of the 80s, in terms of total bank failures. Only a handful of banks have failed this time around, compared to an average of a bank every day or two - for a couple years

Originally Posted by djwolford

It's certainly not a Great Depression level event. You'd have to be smoking crack to seriously believe that the US(and most of the world) in not experiencing a major recession though.

That being said, it's being overhyped. I mean really, this shit happens, it'll stop soon.

Yeah......I study economics and finance.....

We're not in a recession, and I'm not smoking crack. The fact that you think we are means one and/or two things. #1: You don't know what a recession is, by definition #2: You are unfamiliar with the most recent American economic data

But if you ignore what recession means, and all relevant data, then yeah, we're in a recession.

Even if we end up in a recession, it is just defined as two back-to-back fiscal quarters of negative growth. We don't have that now (yet, anyway) and even if we do have that it is not the end of the world. If McDonalds had two quarters in a row when they were backward on growth they wouldn't be closing their doors, they would just need to rethink their gameplan.

Originally Posted by Rick Scarf

Even if we end up in a recession, it is just defined as two back-to-back fiscal quarters of negative growth. We don't have that now (yet, anyway) and even if we do have that it is not the end of the world. If McDonalds had two quarters in a row when they were backward on growth they wouldn't be closing their doors, they would just need to rethink their gameplan.

Indeed Scarf, you said it nicely. People are acting as if America falling into a recession would mean that the country is going to collapse. Not only has America seen many much worse periods of economic strife, look at other countries. There are countries that have been in a recession for 40 or 50 years that are still there, countries a lot less resourceful than America would be in their place too.

Not to mention that the US has no nations within it (as in, no German nation, Irish nation, Hungarian nation, etc. sine we're all integrated) alienated or not with the exception of the various Native American nations which are alienated but incapable of sustaining themselves at the moment as independent states. Even during the Great Depression where both Fascism and Communism were at their heights popularity-wise there was no talk of dissolving the USA. Even in Canada where there are stronger separatism movements you don't see any serious attempts except in Quebec which is pretty isolated from the rest of Canada. The strongest separatism after that is in Alberta which distrusts the rest of Canada due to economic policies in the 1970's but even then no real serious attempts that can remotely compare to the FLQ, Bloc Quebecois, etc.

Originally Posted by Vengeful Scars

Maybe I just look to much into the fact that some of the largest lenders in the world are going under.

Also many, many, many real estate and title companies are non-existent now (I can name 5 multi-million dollar companies in middle Tennessee alone that are no longer in operation)

Do it.

I haven't been paying close attention to local businesses lately.

save the cheerleader, save the US financial market

Originally Posted by Vengeful Scars

Maybe I just look to much into the fact that some of the largest lenders in the world are going under.

Also many, many, many real estate and title companies are non-existent now (I can name 5 multi-million dollar companies in middle Tennessee alone that are no longer in operation)

If they can't properly underwrite and maintain acceptable risk levels by accounting standards then it's better off for everyone that they closed their doors, IMO.

Originally Posted by Mr. E

Yeah......I study economics and finance.....

We're not in a recession, and I'm not smoking crack. The fact that you think we are means one and/or two things. #1: You don't know what a recession is, by definition #2: You are unfamiliar with the most recent American economic data

But if you ignore what recession means, and all relevant data, then yeah, we're in a recession.

Precisely.

The economy has slowed. It has not recessed.

Of course, this is why journalists are absolutely the most soulless fucks on the planet. Their motivation lies solely in sales and they have no obligation to investigate or test the truth of their theories so much as they have motivation to churn out them with maximum sensationalism and revise or apologize later.

It doesn't matter who the journalist is or what the publication, if you're reading it in mass media, it's probably not credible.

Obama said that the United States was facing its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression in the debate tonight. Obama fails American History. McCain wins!

Originally Posted by DickStivers

what kind of debt are we talking here? have you actually talked with a lender to see what they would actually require you to pay off in order to qualify for a mortgage? it might be worth your time to do so. go FHA so you only have to come up with 3% down and then ask the seller's to pay all your closing costs, escrows and prepaids so you don't have to come up with an additional $4000 or so on top of of your 3% down. FHA allows up to 6% seller concessions, so they can pay all your closing costs and give you a credit for carpet or appliance upgrades if you like too. i'm seeing mortgages in the less than 125k price range here including principal, interest, taxes and insurance come in at like a grand a month, which is about what it costs to rent a shit 2/2 apartment here.

you are absolutely right about the buyer's market and interest rates are sick low right now

I am aware of that and while it would technically be financially feasible, I would not be comfortable with the risks associated with only having 3% down on a house. We've got our cars paid off but still have my credit card and we both have student loans. The gameplan is we'll start saving for a house once we get everything but the student loans paid off, which should be here in a next few months. I am not interested in either the risks associated with a 97:3 ratio of debt-to-equity or paying money for PMI by having less than 20% down.

Originally Posted by Rick Scarf

I am aware of that and while it would technically be financially feasible, I would not be comfortable with the risks associated with only having 3% down on a house. We've got our cars paid off but still have my credit card and we both have student loans. The gameplan is we'll start saving for a house once we get everything but the student loans paid off, which should be here in a next few months. I am not interested in either the risks associated with a 97:3 ratio of debt-to-equity or paying money for PMI by having less than 20% down.

what are you talking about risks? i understand not wanting to carry the pmi, but it'd only be like $60/month and you could earn that by investing your 17% that you don't dump into the house and keeping yourself liquid for an emergency. as long as you pay your note, there is no "risk", unless i'm missing something here. you guys can defer your student loans no prob. once you have 20% equity in the house, either through appreciation or adding a little extra $$$ to your mortgage payment every month, you can drop the pmi. i'd much rather keep my cash on hand in case a job is lost or an emergeny came up rather than put it into the house for no reason. the rates on FHA vs conventional are pretty competitive and FHA is sometimes lower. i just got someone 6.1% the other day.

i remember you posting on lws about your savings and investments - you seem pretty wise with money and not the type to run up a credit card, so i can't imagine you have much debt...

If my wife or I lost our job at our current incomes we could not afford a $1,000/mo payment, nor the upkeep/maintainence costs a house would require. Also, my job allows me great flexibility with promotions if I am willing to relocate, so there is a real chance that we might move 2-3 years from today and have to sell a house that may have gone down in value since we bought it - If I bought a house I would want to plan on being in it at least 5 years so it would have a better chance of increasing in value.
One of my co-workers is in a shitty situation because he had to move for work, 6 months or more ago, and still hasn't been able to sell his 1st home so he is very strained financially, paying for the house he owns but can't sell, as well as paying rent on his current house. I'm pretty conservative I guess so I just don't see the justification of "playing the system" by deferring student loans to temporarily liquidate funds that are not always guaranteed to be there. Too much risk for my taste.

yeah all that's understandable and if there's a chance of relocation i see where you're coming from.

ITT WE TALK ABOUT A LOT OF SHIT I DONT UNDERSTAND

Legalize weed and tax it.

duh

Originally Posted by sycld

To be fair, I have not seen or heard a single mainstream news outlet call the current economic situation a "recession." I would hazard to guess that this is the poster's own analysis and not anyone in the media's.

I have