Remind me to explain the game theory of nursing the sheriff after this game because mrshrike is dumb. Not giving free tips during game just in case the sheriff does turn up a mafia.
Update: nevermind I'd rather discuss it with someone intelligent because I'm not positive that it's as simple as it looks.
In otherwords, you thought you were right, but actually you're wrong.
Colour me surprised.
No I'm 100% right but I'm not willing to discuss game impact in the midst of a game, especially when it provides a free guide to the mafia on how to lynch a declared sheriff.
i'm actually over at my dad's place, and he said the internet went down around a month ago, so i pretty much gave up on the hope of being able to postOriginally Posted by sponge
turns out some useless cunt from the phone company misplaced some cables, but i'm good now. i'll edit the former post
now, having said that, coq points out that both kt and think have not been posting too much lately and says they're suspicious because of this, and then both of them just pretty much type "/lynch coq"
if both of them turn out to be mafia i wouldn't be surprised if coq turns out to be the last mafia member
ok valid point
sorry what
Uh we have a little over 24 hours to lynch someone.
Start voting so we can at least start discussing.
What are you talking about, I accused 3 people without actually casting a vote and gave my reasoning behind why I thought they were suspect. I don't believe I pegged all three mafia, but I'm pretty sure that at least one on the list is. Laying low and dodging attention is more suspect than actively engaging in the game and is a common mafia tactic. I'm more convinced you and/or think aren't town because your response to my post was to immediately start bandwagoning against me, with an ignorable delay between identical votes.
I'm not sure which of you three are the mafia, but I'm at least 80% certain one of you is. Considering think hasn't tried to defend himself (is he just playing it cool? sidestepping negative attention in an attempt to discredit it?) I'm going to vote for him. Still not convinced that KT. is benign.
edit: /vote think
Last edited by coqauvin; 08-18-2010 at 09:09 PM.
Fuck my boss just saw that scat.
"That looks just like my last business trip" he said.
*edit*
Atmosfear, my logic says educating everyone tends to tilt the favour towards the town, because if we assume everyone has or gains perfect understanding of the game, the odds are significantly in favour of the town (who already have a 60% chance of winning just based on random chance right now if my sums are correct).
Zuelan, I don't know about the "all 3" hypothesis, but there's a chance that it could be 1, 2 or 3 of them. The raw probability says only 1 of them, which means 66% chance of guessing wrong, but I think further behaviour will improve those odds come next round. Meanwhile, there is another group pattern between 2 other people (they will probably know who they are once I vote) which gives a 50% of getting it right if I choose 1 of them.
/flush simonj
Last edited by MrShrike; 08-19-2010 at 01:48 AM.
my reasoning behind voting for simonj is that he said something about not knowing who the mafia is and that did it for me
EDIT: this
Oh, I see. Because I stated that I had no idea who the mafia could be at that point in the game (nobody else had any ideas either) I must be mafia?
Well it's convenient that you made a post about the important of educating everyone (as though the town is somehow going to benefit from me posting a red herring Atmosfear's Guide to Killing a Declared Sheriff When the Nurse is Alive.) Not to mention your "sums" are fucking retarded because you clearly don't grasp the concept of multiplying probabilities, which NEVER get better than .500 since the game, by definition, ends when the mafia because equal to or greater than 50% of the living population. Assuming we wait until the absolute last possible second to lynch the correct mafia, so that all of our kills occur at max probability, the purely random odds of killing all the mafia are 3/7 = .42, 2/5 = .4, 1/3 = .33. Multiply them for the odds of all three occurring (randomly) and you'll find a 5% chance of the town guessing randomly who the mafia are.
Assumptions
Of course, this is a meaningless number because it's not random, which is the whole point. The town needs to gain information, and therefore needs to lynch before the optimal random odds. Which was the whole reason you were a fucking idiot in the sign-up thread.
There's also a chance that it could be none of them, shitfuck. The "raw probability" suggests 25% of them are mafia.
Don't think that I didn't notice your half-veiled accusation and bullshit logic to support the town sharing all of its knowledge and me telling the mafia how to play, and then watch you turn around and make up some numbers to lynch simonj.
/unlynch Think the absentee player (who might still be a mafia)
/lynch MrShrike
The following reasons:
1. MrShrike tried to get me to give the mafia a guide on how to play, after he suggested the Sheriff declare himself (in round 2 r u fkn srs?) so the nurse would have to save him.
2. MrShrike claimed that everyone should make all information public (which I generally agree with), and then turned around and made a vote based on a "50/50 shot of one of you being mafia" without ever revealing who the pair was.
3. For that matter, MrShrike didn't offer any evidence to support killing simonj, much less his 50/50 partner in crime.
4. MrShrike is an idiot and I don't like him and while I tried to play the game with him, it's intolerable. Much like killing sycld, even if we're wrong, I think we've done ourselves a favor. He's not sharing any meaningful information with us anyways.
(Atmosfear, making England a better place for Brits and Shits to live in tenuous harmony)
Would you like to quote exactly where I was the one that suggested that the Sheriff should reveal himself? I think you'll find that was Infernus, genius. Casual Discourse - View Single Post - [Mafia 2] Brit or Shit
I said it was an idea that had a certain merit and disadvantages at certain points in the game, but I certainly didn't suggest it was a good idea for the 2nd round. Casual Discourse - View Single Post - [Mafia 2] Brit or Shit
Nor did I request your advice, you conveniently interjected yourself into the conversation to muddy the waters about what the Sheriff should do to keep safe, then you clammed up saying you didn't want to give anything away. Casual Discourse - View Single Post - [Mafia 2] Brit or Shit
Yet you now claim that you agree with me (conveniently again, given that I'm right), that everyone in the town knowing what strategies will or won't work, is in our favour. (see last Atmosfear post).
Either you are stupid, or you are lying. And I don't believe you're stupid Atmosfear.
So, is there a particular reason why you are making bald faced lies about what I have or haven't said?
Or why you are contradicting yourself, claiming that it's good for the town if everyone knows all the worthwhile strategies, but meanwhile actually making it less clear by rubbishing what I made clear without actually explaining any alternative?
I have a lot more to say about the rest of your bullshit Atmosfear, but I think we should all go back and read the actual thread, and then think about exactly why you have just made at least 3 straight out lies in your latest post.
I'm only 50/50 sure that simonj is a mafia (and that's based on circumstantial evidence), but I'm pretty fucking sure you are Atmosfear. There's no reason why you would lie so many times, unless you were desperate to create confusion and were counting on people being prepared to take anything you say at face value. That's also why you want to get rid of me, because I question what you say. Most mafia would just ignore it, but your ego is too big to let it go.
/lynch Atmosfear
Last edited by MrShrike; 08-19-2010 at 08:22 AM. Reason: Added correct link to Atmosfears 3rd post.
Well It's clear that I attributed infernus' idea to you by mistake (playing forum games on a phone over the course of a week clause), but nursing the sheriff creates a Wine In Front of Me situation with unequal outcomes and therefore mathematically determinable dominant strategies. Forgive me for realizing this and declining to provide a DOMINANT STRATEGY to the mafia.
Everyone in the town knowing the best ways for mafia to play doesn't benefit the town, it benefits the mafia. Do you tell your opponent his best move in chess? Not if you want to win.
Which is my point--I've declined to discuss strategy during the game except where it pertained to identifying mafia. Every time I've made an accusation or vote, I've provided a degree of confidence as well as a rationale. I haven't obscured any of my suspicions because I have a risk of dying each night. You provided no reasoning for your vote, you've hidden the second partner in the pair, and you're acting like you have no risk of dying.
Risk of dying is exactly why I didn't identify the other person I suspect other than simonj.
If I guess wrong, I'm not protected by the bandwagon vote like I am voting for simonj and being the lone voice that says they suspect someone (who IS actually mafia) before there is any opportunity to lynch them only serves to paint a great big fucking bullseye on my ass.
But I'm pretty damn sure you know this perfectly well already.
By trying to force me to reveal it now, you will gain more knowledge about whether I suspect one of the other mafia (and give them an excuse to vote for me), or will turn someone innocently accused against me in the vote. There is no profit in me doing what you want, except for the mafia.
Also, you just lied again when you tried to explain away your first lie.
You know that if the towns people and the mafia BOTH know the dominant strategies and what is going on, the townspeople will be benefitted more. You basically said as much yourself because you you agreed with me when I said that. Now you're saying you didn't want to discuss it because it would give a strategy away only to the mafia, which is again blatantly untrue given that all of us can read.
Last edited by MrShrike; 08-19-2010 at 09:15 AM.
He said that information sharing is generally good, and he pointed out that sure we'd all have the information on the strategy, but, and here's the crucial difference: the shits could implement it without our knowledge of it necessarily helping us.
To put it another way: say the USA are the only country who know how to make a nuke. You're suggesting telling the soviets how to make a nuke so weapons inspectors in their country can theoretically know what nuke-making looks like and suss them out.
tl;dr you are an idiot please stop talking it's not helping anyone especially you
Um if you have sound reasoning for someone being mafia, them you need to identify the person and the explanation. That way, even if you die, the remaining town can use it. Accusing a mafia ALWAYS bears risk of being targetted. A townie doesn't care if he dies as long as he helps the town win, which is why townies don't lie about being the nurse or sheriff before they die.
There's just so many gaps in your logic it's astounding, not the least of which being that you're wrong thinking that I'm a mafia. I invite the sheriff to investigate me (obviously don't reveal the results until it's necessary, since you'll become a target.)
I'm going to post your PM (I'd screenshot but I don't think I can do that from a phone.) I havent seen it, but if you have any explanations to make, might want to start now.
I'd also like to point out that it's possible we are both wrong. About eachother. I'd still prefer you died in lieu of a nonlynch because I don't like playing with you.
MrShrike seems to think that if he dies he has lost, even if the town wins. This is only true if he is mafia or an idiot.
Also, mrshrike isn't grasping the difference between knowledge of strategies and knowledge of observed behavior. The strategy is to reveal suspicions and reasoning behind votes to the town so that it is conserved if you die. The information is the observations/theories that supposedly provide a 100% chance that either simonj or a mystery accomplice are mafia. Of course, the odds are always 50/50 if you never reveal the other party.
Here's the PM mrshrike sent me:
Think, given that Atmosfear's change of vote now puts you in the clear, I'm not surprised you are backing him up.
But go and read the actual strategy that was being discussed and follow the conversation. All the things I suggested benefited the town to know. Atmosfear immediately waded in to confuse the issue by declaring I was wrong, even though he knows that isn't true. Then he supposedly changed his mind about telling us why I was wrong.
Also your analogy is wrong. Atmosfear is fudging his agreement by saying generally and information instead of always and strategy. But he knows it's true.
Ask Atmosfear if it's better for everyone to knows all the strategies the mafia can use, given that they need to know in order to identify when it's being used, or to just hope that the mafia don't know or work them out for themselves and leave most of the townpeople in the dark.
Guys what if mrshrike, atmosfear and myself are all the mafia? That would make about as much sense as what we've had so far.
oshit
The only reasoning I can base my suspicion off is:
a) Observed behaviour - information which is available to anyone to 2 eyes
b) Possible strategies, which you now seem to think we shouldn't share. Or you do. Or you don't.
The chances of me dying with information that no-one else has is very small and my risk of being lynched or murdered is also small - IF I don't point the finger unnnessarily. We can still win if I get lynched or murdered no problem. But why should I invite it for your benefit, especially given that I'm still fairly convinced you are mafia.
Why would you blatantly lie? Tired?
And the only real reason to jump all over me so suddenly would seem to be to protect someone who is imminently about to be lynched.
Anyway, it's 2AM here, so I'm going to bed and we'll see whatever happens very soon. At this point, looks like Coq is going to get lynched unless it changes.
Last edited by MrShrike; 08-19-2010 at 11:03 AM.
I wasn't imminently about to be lynched, Think was (thus I didn't need protecting).
As it stands now it's 2 for Think, 2 for coq, 1 for Atmosfear, MrShrike & myself respectively. If a draw results in a non lynching then either more people need to vote or someone needs to switch their vote so we have a majority.
I'd rather not because I don't find coq all that suspicious.
HOW THE FUCK DOES THE TOWN BENEFIT FROM KNOWING WHO THE MAFIA SHOULD LYNCH IF THE SHERIFF DECLARED AND THE NURSE IS ALIVE, HE ROARED IN A FIT OF RAGE AT THE AUTISTIC MOUTH-BREATHING CHILD.
Lynch, kill, whatever it is when you die at night.
And shrike has made an accusation against this mystery pair (one of whom is simonj) without any explanation of who the pair is and what behavior of their indicates that one of them is a mafia.
current votes
Code:votes against voted to flush Atmoscheer 1 MrShrike coqauvin 2 Think infernus 0 KT. 0 coqauvin MrShrike 1 Atmoscheer simonj 1 Think ShitFace 0 Snead 0 sponge 0 Think 2 coqauvin WellAdjusted 0 simonj zuelan 0As stated in the OP, in the case of a draw one of them will die. If these votes stand for the next hour and a half, I will do it like this:
"If this post number is odd, coqauvin will die. If even, Think will die."
By post number I don't mean the # at the top right, but the bigger number that appears when you hover over the #. For example, this post is 193529.
Oh we don't need a majority to lynch good talk see you out there
Day 2 ends.
If this post number is odd, coqauvin will die. If even, Think will die.
193534 so Think is dead.
(bye Think)
With his last breath, Think gulped, "tea up!" True to his word, what came back up was tea, not shit. He was the Brit James Henry Thomas.
Night 2 begins.
Why did day 2 end 7 hours early?
Brit or Shit Time
More like fuck you mutton time
whoa
Well I just thought it was a little unnecessary of you to state that since it was already pretty clear that no one knew
No posting [in-game content] at night.
woops, sorry I didn't see that it had ended until after I posted it
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