Because the last one actually worked out ok, I'm gonna run another Mafia game. Sign up in this thread for it!
This new game will feature more roles, hopefully more players and more intrigue than ever before! Also, KT. is terrible at Mafia.
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Because the last one actually worked out ok, I'm gonna run another Mafia game. Sign up in this thread for it!
This new game will feature more roles, hopefully more players and more intrigue than ever before! Also, KT. is terrible at Mafia.
It was my first time :(
I'll play again.
i would but ill be away next week so ill wait til v3
coq i can mod so you play
yeah sure
sure, as long as the townspeople don't act like they have severe heavy metal poisoning.
Sure I'll be in it.
Same rules as last time, or new rules?
Just pointing out I had mutton pegged from the first post coq had to delete
Emofioso: Each night one of the emo townspeople slashes their own wrists. Each day the pop-psychologists (i.e. everyone) can give someone pop-psych therapy and while the scientologists try to subvert them in the name of Xenu.
Just read the first thread and it looked like a good time. I'm game, but bare with me, I'm an idiot.
ill be in again
i'm in :)))
this is bad news for any budding mafiosi out there.Quote:
Originally Posted by zuelan
Sycld you were so painfully transparent I don't even understand how you were the least bit surprised
maybe I was at the end.... when it was safer to be transparent :(Quote:
Originally Posted by Atmoscheer
but how could anyone say I was more transparent in my motives than mutton? :/
sailor jack and I are away next week but if it goes ahead later than we imagine then count us in
make sure think remembers to take the pill so he doesn't get preggers unless you two are trying to concieveQuote:
Originally Posted by Think
otherwise have fun you crazy kids
I called mutton after his first vote. My post got deleted.
Good job Atmosfear. Your parents must be so proud.
Kt here is the thing about smart people... We don't like whores.
Okay
if i was more obvious than mutton, then why not call me too, eh?Quote:
Originally Posted by Atmoscheer
Because I couldn't post in the thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Atmoscheer
Casual Discourse - View Single Post - Mafia Game predictions [no players allowed]Quote:
Originally Posted by Atmoscheer
I'm in too
I enjoyed it more than I thought I would. Also I think I was pretty good at it.
mutton: sure, I'll play. Thanks for the offer! I'm still thinking of colourful ways to run the game that aren't too out of the norm of Mafia, but I can run them in the future. uh, let me know via pm if you'll mod or if you want me to take over - either way is good for me.
so, uh, I guess I'm in.
with me or mutton being swappable, the list is currently:
coqauvin
KT.
shitface
sycld
mr shrike
atmosfear
zuelan
snead
infernus
simonj
sailor jack
think
if we wait for the brits to play, we'll have 12, which is a good number to have for a game. I'm fine either way, tbh.
edit: also, I'm on vacation right now, but I'll be back home by wednesday
me and think will be back from our romantic city break on friday so i think we should definately wait til then
guys I want to play fuck britain
I want to play that too.Quote:
Originally Posted by sponge
Ok I will host the Brit or Shit theme.
Brit: You are a Brit living in the Casualmouth Borough of Discourshire-under-Cwm. You want to eliminate the Shits to maintain the borough status of your district.
Shit: You are a pile of shit masquerading as a Brit, and you plan to take over this borough. You have already taken over other boroughs because they smell similar and fail to detect you. Each night, you get to swarm one Brit in his sleep to put him in a shit-induced coma.
Smeller: You are a Brit unique to Casualmouth with the special ability to sneak up to a player's canopy bed and smell out his role each night.
Purifier: You are a Brit with the ability to visit one player each night to purify him in case he gets covered in shit.
Every night, the players vote to flush one down the loo. The player who receives the most votes dies and his identity is revealed. If there is a tie, I will flip a shilling to decide who gets flushed.
If we wait for sailor jack and Think: 3 Shits, 9 Brits (1 smeller, 1 purifier)
If we don't wait for sailor jack and Think: 2 Shits, 8 Brits (1 smeller)
Oh mutton you are killing on pluralities instead of majorities?
This really is shit.
make sycld a shit because gay people eat da poo poo
majority is too hard to achieve, especially on the first couple of days, when there is the least information
and especially in the final days, when the Brits have to be perfect to win
majority limits people to choose between 2 bandwagons instead of starting a new one
Anyone who tries to prevent lynchings in the first couple days is either mafia or retarded (in think's case, retarded)
Or knows that the mafia are trying to bandwagon everyone into voting for an innocent townsperson.
Knowing what we know now, Think's play on Day 1 wasn't actually as retarded as it sounded, although the reasoning behind it was.
Generally speaking, on day 1, you're gonna a lynch a townie, but people's actions are the biggest tells, until a couple days pass and these can be compared to voting records. Think's play avoided lynching a townie (when the mafia had more people than it should have had, in retrospect) on the first day and actually bought them day 3. Without that prevented lynching, the game would've been over night 2. Of course, this made 0 difference in the end because the remaining townies weren't present and were also retarded, but it still extended the game enough to give a chance to the townies.
The general train of thought is that not lynching someone in the first couple of days is really just giving kills to the mafia. But it also delays the killing of a townie, especially if the value of a townie life is inflated due to bloated mafia numbers, and allows for investigator roles to actually uncover information to create townie alliances or learn who a mafia member is and use this information to sway votes or learn who else is a mafia member.
Well that's why think was retarded. The town needs to lynch the first night because the odds of getting the mafia are 0 if you don't lynch. Think's stupid play also cost the town a player later when they'd have had better odds (think, who might have been a special role I don't remember.)
The truth is that the town doesn't gain information without lynching, and the odds of losing a special role is less likely than killing a mafia.
lynching think was a good idea because he was fucking annoying not because he might have been mafia
I don't see why Think was so fuckin worried about saving bfdirty when he could just revive that dude if he wanted
(Think was the Nurse)
Not true. Because of the difference in knowledge between the mafia and townspeople, the voting patterns for the mafia will always tend to be less random and to vote as a bloc.Quote:
The truth is that the town doesn't gain information without lynching
Because of this, each lynching is more likely than not to vote for a townsperson, because anyone who bandwagons is almost certainly doing so with an existing mafia bloc vote (who obviously aren't going to vote for a mafia).
The absolute lack of certainly that the townspeople have about who is or isn't mafia makes them more vulnerable initially, but it's also a strength because, every townsperson should avoid acting in co-ordination with others, unless and until there is clear evidence of collusion between certain people. Anyone who does collude with others will either be mafia, or unwittingly working with them to lynch innnocent townspeople.
So the best method is to split the vote inconclusively and not lynch anyone, because besides leaving you with an extra townsperson, giving you more rounds to work with, the results will effectively divide up the town into smaller groups and individuals, which you can then track to see if they continue to try to vote as a bloc. You'll also be able to rule out any isolated individuals that a consistent voting bloc goes for as being mafia.
this is a load of horseshit. How do games get started without a bandwagon vote in the first place? It always requires more votes than mafia to lynch, does that mean everyone who votes to hang is mafia? Voting patterns only approach reliable after day 3, so voting blocs won't necessesarily show up, and any mafia who doesn't vote for a fellow mafia that played like an idiot and was obviously mafia is bad and should feel bad.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrShrike
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OQuote:
Originally Posted by MrShrike
yeah, you can't afford to wait that long, because the shit will be all up in your brit by the time you get reliable and clear evidence. The less communication there is between townies, the easier it is for the mafia to win.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrShrike
No, Atmosfear is right. Except under very specialized circumstances, like the ones in the last game, it's always better to have a lynching. Otherwise, you're giving the mafia a free kill.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrShrike
Except that if everyone is formed into small blocs, how do you know which one is Mafia? This strat relies completely on dividing the uninformed group into smaller uninformed groups. You've already divided the townies, it makes the mafia conquering so much eaiser.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrShrike
Leaving out the fact the mafia might purosely avoid voting in blocs to avoid suspicion
that too
The only time that not lynching is always the best option is when there are 3 town and 1 mafia. The town improve their odds of winning from 1/4 to 1/3 if they don't lynch immediately. Either way, they lose if they guess wrong, so there's incentive to wait.
Note if there are individual win conditions, such as Siblings or Lovers, then obviously not everyone will care to wait. Of course, if you have a pair, you should be able to guess right with 4 survivors.
And yes, mathletes, I realize that this same reduction in odds vs. mortality gambit technically occurs any time there are 2n+2 players remaining in the game, where n is the number of mafia remaining. But there is more variability in the group's ability to even gain a winning majority if there are, say 2 mafia out of 5 than if there are 2 out of 6, especially if someone is mildly retarded (see: last game) so I am sticking that it's only always smarter if there are 3 and 1.
I'm not convinced Coq and Atmo, but I guess the proof is in the pudding, so we'll see.
darn, am I too late?
I doubt it.
Sup WellAdjusted
chyeahhhh, then I'm totes down
Well hello there.
I took CD off my safari bookmark thing and I ended up not visiting for tiiiiime, though it appears I didn't miss too much.
Atmoscheer
coqauvin
infernus
KT.
MrShrike
simonj
ShitFace
Snead
sycld
WellAdjusted
zuelan
3 days for sailor jack and Think
wunnerful
murton I want to play see Casual Discourse - View Single Post - mafia 2 sign up threadQuote:
Originally Posted by mutton
i don't know how to play fuck britain but i bet it involves tea
no those are separate thoughts I was expressing that I wanted to play mafia but I didn't care about the two brits who wanted everyone to wait on their tea-drinking and ass-munchingQuote:
Originally Posted by coqauvin
if you all would just read my mind this wouldn't be a problem
That can only be because you're dumb. Like coq said, if everyone had perfect knowledge of the game and there was a dominant town strategy (and that strategy was to not lynch), then the mafia would get a free kill and tell you nothing (because they would just follow the rest of the town's strategy and spread votes evenly away from a majority.) Then the next day would come and you still wouldn't know anything about the mafia and you'd be guessing again, this time one man shorter.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrShrike
You are right about needing to see the mafia's voting patterns to expose them, but that only works if you are ostensibly working toward the goal of killing a mafia. Except in the cases I described, where the mafia already have a numeric advantage and the town must guess right on their next lynching or lose, does it help to wait for the mafia to kill someone.
Bullshit.
In the beginning, all votes by townspeople to lynch are essentially random. Because the townspeople outnumber mafia, this means a lynching is already more likely to kill a townsperson than a mafia. Add in that the mafia know who they are and any initial lynchings are almost certain to kill a townsperson, greatly increasing the advantage to the mafia.
Unless you happen to have 3 VERY cool operators playing mafia, that potential advantage in voting to lynch at this point will be almost impossible for to resist - even if the townspeople baulk.
We could argue about this all day and night, but simply consider the result from the first game.
If the non-mafia had not voted to lynch 2 innocent people unnecessarily, essentially floundering around blindly because they no real idea at that point who was mafia, what would have happened instead of the mafia winning so quickly, as they did?
Simple. There would have been 2 more innocents alive, including the nurse, and 2 more days minimum to work out who the mafia were based on their voting patterns. Not to mention the pattern of votes would be much more obvious.
Look, the whole point of the game is to kill mafia. With a field of 3/12, you have a 1 in 4 chance of killing a mafia. by not lynching on the first day, you have 0 chance as well as losing out on voting records for the day.
Ok, so what do you hope to gain by not lynching? Your night operators will get a move, but even if the investigator finds someone, he can't just come out and say 'hey, I'm the damn investigator and mr shrike is mafia' because he will get shot at night. The nurse doesn't have to believe someone claiming to be the investigator, but for the mafia, killing one townie is the same as killing any other townie. The best you can hope for is the ability to see whether or not the game will end on a day phase or a night phase, then stall voting so that it will end on a day phase, giving you the extra time you need to win. How do you even know if that's possible? If there's a small enough field of players and you have enough information to see it coming.
That's why not lynching on the first day is a bad move. Yeah, it's probably gonna be a townie who dies, but so what? Not taking the chance to kill a mafia is worse than stalling because you have no info. Nobody ever really has info in mafia.
wow reading this argument makes me think this is a little more complicated than the card game I used to play haha
shut the fuck up by continuing to speak you have already lostQuote:
Originally Posted by MrShrike
I doubt it. I'm pretty sure the card game has a number of roles that we don't have.Quote:
Originally Posted by WellAdjusted
But yeah, applying game theory always makes stimulus-response relationships appear more complex. The truth, as we saw in the last game, is that even if there was a truly dominant strategy, many players who would otherwise benefit from subscribing will disagree or ignore it, changing the way the game gets played.
Strategies are just conjecture. All you do is try and kill the mafia if you are a townsperson and try and not be killed by townspeople if you are a mafia. How you go about that is a personal choice (although, as MrShrike has shown, some personal choices are more retarded than others).
Also MrShrike seems to think that the town benefits from winning with more people. The goal of the town is to get enough information to beat the odds in their do or die rounds. There's no bonus points for keeping more alive (see also: inept mafia/lucky guess points), and even dead players "win" when the town wins.
All of the roles we play with are town-affiliated. The Nurse buys the town an extra night, while the Detective gathers additional information. Truthfully, neither is reliable until it's a Do or Die round, because of the difficulty of communicating definitively without the mafia killing you immediately.
Atmoscheer
coqauvin
infernus
KT.
MrShrike
sailor jack
simonj
ShitFace
Snead
sponge
sycld
Think
WellAdjusted
zuelan
3 Shits
11 Brits (1 Smeller)
we will start tomorrow, the guys on honeymoon will catch up (not everyone will have posted by friday anyway)
he revives townsfolk from night kills, not day lynchesQuote:
Originally Posted by KT.
no, most players vote based on how others actQuote:
Originally Posted by MrShrike
so you would have stalled that game, despite the evidence against Think, until it was 4 town vs. 3 mafia with only a 1 day difference, and now the town has to make flawless decisionsQuote:
Originally Posted by MrShrike
Mutton this town is gonna need a Nurse
if there's consensus i'll give you a nurse
the nurse and cop become powerful once they gather enough info
That's not true. There are a number of games with dominant strategies, which mean you mathematically have the best possible play regardless of the way your opponent plays. The simplest examples (or perhaps most common) are in a Prisoner's Dilemma, you're always better off turning in the other guy, or in the Monty Hall Question, you're always better off switching doors.Quote:
Originally Posted by simonj
No. That's the point. The more rounds, the more information you have when you reach the do or die endgame. But anyway, you do it your way, I'll do it mine.Quote:
Originally Posted by Atmoscheer
Which you can't trust.Quote:
Originally Posted by mutton
What evidence? Think wasn't mafia.Quote:
so you would have stalled that game, despite the evidence against Think,
He acted like a fucking mafia, lying to everyone in order to prevent a lynch which clearly benefits the mafia and then turned around and made a whole bunch of vote switches. Vote switching is usually an indicator of mafia.
I mean the town should have lynched Think immediately, but it wasn't until Think was proven innocent that it became clear that mutton was a mafia. Think also should have revealed that he was nurse immediately, because he could have proven mutton a mafia and he was already going to die, but as has been established, Think didn't play very well. I think bfdirty and simonj were guesses without much basis, but he was right about mutton.
And your argument of "you can't trust how people act" is dumb... the only thing you CAN trust is the reveal of dead players. You can to kill players to reconcile behavior with fact.
ThisQuote:
Originally Posted by atmosfear
but considering how the game played out, had they lynched a town on day one, the game would've been done during night 2. too many mafia for such a small pool.
yeah i expected people to listen to Think after he got revealed (this is why we killed infernus), but they took him for a raving lunatic or are just idiots
if i got lynched, bfdirty should have been next and the mafia would win still
Yeah they were never going to get sycld. He was in the driver's seat.
Ok, so the ultimate plan is do exactly what they did last time and hope it doesn't lose them the game in the shortest possible time, just like it did last time. Right.
But anyway, let's just play already.
No the plan is to actually lynch someone on the first night this time and hope no townspeople start switching votes and surreptitiously PMing people making themselves look as suspicious as Michael Jackson's death.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrShrike
there will be one lynch every day
My mistake - so actually they're going to lynch a townsperson first round as well and lose the game a turn even earlier than they did last time.Quote:
Originally Posted by simonj
Well I'm onboard with that plan.
Good. Now stfu
Hey I just want you to know you've got my full confidence.
New plan keep dipshit MrShrike out of the game
good choice because i was going to make a post about how hes rightQuote:
Originally Posted by mutton
New plan Atmosfear has a cry whenever someone shows how wrong he is...no wait that's the old plan too.
i hope i'm not on mr shrike's team
/lynch mr shrike
Hopefully we'll be seeing a lot of that sorta phraseology.
MrShrike there are entire forums dedicated to playing mafia with a variety of custom rules and the one thing they all have in common? They lynch the first night.
What do you seem to know that dedicated players do not?
The whole point is that you have to start voting somewhere, and as soon as you do, it's going to be "random" voting. After a day or two, then the voting becomes more meaningful because patterns emerge. If you want to do that after the mafia kills someone or kills two people or kills three people, you can't circle the wagons the entire game.
Isn't the chance of increasing the odds in favour of the mafia higher than the chance of improving the odds for the town, when you act without information?Quote:
Originally Posted by Atmoscheer
And even if no-one is lynched, there's still information gained from attempts to lynch and behaviour.
so i started checking out more mafia games, ones with good players who knew what they were doing, and they all had the same thing in common - lynch on day 1. But it's not just random voting, although that's how it starts.
It turns into 10 pages (at 20ppv) of people arguing back and forth about who's looking more and more like mafia, with decent reasons behind it. Smart players don't want to finish a lynch on page 3 of Day 1, because they don't have much to go on. But on page 5 or 6, they can see a player squirming around a lot under pressure (wagon starts on them) and judge whether or not they're acting in a pro-town or anti-town fashion. After enough people are convinced, a lynch is finally made with a much higher chance of being mafia.
So why would you vote no lynch? It actually has to do with faction numbers, because of how the phases work together. At the endgame, to allow an investigation, a no lynch is a decent vote, but at the beginning, a no lynch is really just depriving yourself of a chance to vote again. Instead of having 4 chances to lynch the mafia (assuming you have an even number of town), you would have 3. Why on earth would you say no lynch under those circumstances?
here, look at this, if you don't believe me about # of town vs # of mafia
http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?...umbers,_Part_1
Actually, they do say that on this page:
http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?...ily_ever_after
- that if the game starts with an odd number of players, it is in the towns interests not to lynch on the first day because that decreases their odds of winning. That also assumes there is no investigator or nurse. With an investigator and nurse, that would make that even more true. However it doesn't hold true if there is an even number of players (as there is in our game)
Anyway, I'll accept that I may well be wrong - I've never actually played mafia before this game, so I'm only new to the concepts and am probably overlooking any number of things, but it is true in at least some instances.
GET THE FUCK OUT OF MY THREADQuote:
Originally Posted by MrShrike
please note, on that site that pretty much exclusively plays mafia and mafia variants, there is exactly one game where 'happily ever after' happened because the remaining mafia player saw that no games had seen it before and wanted to make it happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrShrike
please also see that all those no lynch votes happened in the endgame, to deliberately increase the amount of potential lynchings for the town.
Please note this call may be recorded for quality and training purposes.