Academy Awards Breakdown: Everything You Need to Know About the 2010 Oscar Race
Best Picture
Nominees:
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Who's Gonna Win: The Hurt Locker. The race is hyped with the Kathryn Bigelow-James Cameron exes-turned-rivals shtick, but no one will contend that Avatar was a better film. In fact, most are agreeing the film was shit in every non-technical regard. For all the cause-head voters in the Academy, The Hurt Locker affords a rare opportunity to criticize not just the Iraq war (of which the film did a tastefully absentee job), but the actual soldiers themselves. It echoes the spirit of Platoon 25 years later, which swept Best Picture and Director in 1986.
Who Should Win: Up in the Air. Jason Reitman again shows his uncanny ability to crossover genre barriers and capture the essence of American society in cross-section: millennials who fear mortality, baby boomers who ignore it, the struggles of individuals and organizations to adapt to rapid change, and the rate at which American society has disconnected itself from one another via technology. Reitman expertly captures the ultra-modern, from the economy's far-reaching impact (Detroit layoffs? Christmas morning. Honeymoon? We'll take picture instead) to the advent of sexting (and not via SMS, mind you... this is the age of Blackberry Messenger.) Oh, by the way, the characters and chemistry are fantastic. Oh and it's a realistic romantic comedy.
Sleeper: Inglourious Basterds. It may be coincidence that the Academy expanded the Best Picture nomination field in one of the weakest nominee classes of all time (of all time.) Basterds was a horribly overrated movie, benefiting greatly from the Tarantino Effect. It's no secret that Tarantino is one of the most highly-regarded directors never to win an Oscar, and if you were gonna over-reward a single film for a director's lifetime body of work (think The Departed), this would certainly be a good year to do it.
Best Director
Nominees:
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Up in the Air
Who's Gonna Win: The Hurt Locker. Bigelow tastefully attacked a difficult subject, brought out the best in a no-name cast, and kept the tension high for the entire movie. Plus a female director managed to make a war film feel authentic. The Academy will eat that up. And she was married to James Cameron.
Who Should Win: The Hurt Locker. But not because she was married to James Cameron.
Sleeper: Inglourious Basterds. For all the reasons its a sleeper for Best Picture.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Who's Gonna Win: Jeff Bridges. Better than Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler and he faces pretty light competition.
Who Should Win: Jeff Bridges.
Sleeper: Morgan Freeman. Another category that lacked the "wow" standout performances, except for Bridges. If the Academy sees Bridges' performance as too much Mickey Rourke, Morgan Freeman could sneak out a win as credit for an entire career of artful acting.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Who's Gonna Win: Christoph Waltz. The calm, cool, eloquent, eccentric Nazi Jew Hunter was fearsome on camera for an hour and a half before he ever lifted a violent finger. I have to admit, I haven't seen Harrelson or Plummer's performance, but I really can't imagine it would be better than Waltz. I am almost surprised Waltz wasn't nominated as a leading actor, because despite the myriad characters, he stands out head and shoulders above the rest of the Basterds cast.
Who Should Win: Christoph Waltz.
Sleeper: Woody Harrelson or Christopher Plummer. Because I know it isn't going to be Matt Damon or Stanley Tucci.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious...
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Who's Gonna Win: Gabourey Sidibe. If the fat black girl wins, everyone feels better.
Who Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe. She also gave a great performance.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious...
Who's Gonna Win: Maggie Gyllenhaal. The Academy will see the chemistry with Jeff Bridges in an great movie.
Who Should Win: Anna Kendrick. George Clooney's foil so perfectly represents her gender and generation in a fantastic film.
Sleeper: Penelope Cruz. The Academy is a sucker for her, and the multi-talent aspect of Nine may be enough to impress.
Others
Best Animated Feature Film: Up. (Sleeper: Coraline)
Best Art Direction: Avatar. (Sleeper: n/a)
Best Cinematography: Avatar (Sleeper: Inglourious Basterds)
Best Costume Design: Nine (Sleeper: Coco Before Chanel)
