Mahmoud al-Mabhouh Assassination

If you've been following the news you have probably seen it mentioned at some point recently that a guy named Mahmoud al-Mabhouh was murdered in Dubai in January. He was a big noise in Hamas, and according to some sources, was involved in purchasing weapons from the Iranians for use in Gaza.

A quick summary: He was killed by a team of at least 11 people traveling under what are now known to be bogus European passports; using disguises and a tracking device, they followed him into his hotel, placed him under observation, then came into his room where they subdued him and suffocated and/or electrocuted him. CCTV security cameras in the hotel captured most of their comings and goings. They were out of the UAE by the time his body was found. Suspicion has naturally fallen in Israel's Mossad intelligence service, since they have a long history of assassinating Hamas leadership figures, they definitely wanted al-Mabhouh dead, and this particular killing was pretty sophisticated in operational terms. Some of the names used on the forged passports were found to belong to Israeli nationals who apparently had nothing to do with the killing; they were surprised and unnerved to find that their names had been used in this way. This has also caused a diplomatic flap between Israel and some of the European countries whose passports were used. The UK's Home Office has demanded that the Israeli ambassador explain how UK passports came to be used in this operation, apparently without satisfaction thus far.

Hamas and the Iranians have already accused Israel, while the Dubai police have claimed they are essentially certain that Mossad is responsible. The only article of evidence that actually links the killings to Israel, however, is the use of the identities of unwitting Israeli civilians on the hit squad's passports. Israel has followed their usual policy of refusing to confirm, deny, or comment upon any allegations (but a Mossad official has suggested that the operation was too sloppy in some ways, e.g. killing al-Mabhouh in a place with security cameras everywhere, to be the work of his agency). But bear in mind that Mossad has definitely bungled assassinations in dumb ways before, so their general reputation doesn't mean they're immune to ever screwing up. Still, some of the particulars of the case have lead commentators to suggest that the killing might have been the work not of Mossad, but of some other party trying to make it look like Mossad was responsible. The use of passports in the names of Israeli nationals is suspicious in this sense; you'd think that Mossad would have had the sense not to leave such an obvious and easily-uncovered link, even if it's not a concrete one, back to their country. Especially since this wouldn't be the first time they've gotten in trouble for pulling tricks with other country's passports. But then, again, it also wouldn't be the first dumb mistake they've ever made.

Nonetheless, other suggested culprits include: Some organized crime group that al-Mabhouh was mixed up with, double-crossed Iranians, the Palestinian National Authority/Fatah (which would suggest that Israel still had at least some role, since they back up Fatah), or rivals/enemies within Hamas itself (the group definitely has factions). PNA has accused Hamas of being behind it, claiming they have proof (but just like Dubai's alleged proof of Israeli involvement, they haven't made that evidence public). Dubai is also holding a pair of Palestinians who allegedly played a role in assisting the hit squad.

Whoever did it, they took steps to make it look like Israel was to blame (assuming it wasn't actually Israel in the first place). Some analysts have also suggested that maybe it was Mossad after all, but that they deliberately carried out the operation in a way which would then enable them to point to it's apparent sloppiness and say that they wouldn't make those mistakes and that someone must be trying to set them up. If so, clever clever. It will probably be impossible to determine for sure who was responsible until one or more of the actual hit squad members is captured (they are all still at large and probably in hiding). It's been suggested that if Israel really is behind the killing, it may be as part of a broader effort to disrupt or "decapitate" groups like Hamas and Hezbollah so that these groups won't be able to effectively mount retaliations on behalf of Iran if Israel were to launch an air strike against Iranian nuclear facilities (if true, this suggests the troubling possibility that the Israeli leadership is seriously considering doing so in the near future).

Anyhow, all this is fairly significant (as such things go) in the broader Middle East picture. For one thing it further jacks up tensions between Iran and Israel, already running extremely high over the Iranian nuclear issue and Iranian support for Hamas/Hezbollah. For another thing, if it comes out that Israel really is responsible, the Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu will have a major political embarrassment on his hands and Israel as a whole will have a major diplomatic sticking point with the countries whose passports were used. The botched assassination attempt on Khalid Mashal in 1997 (happened in Jordan, Mossad agents used Canadian passports and got caught after squirting poison into Mashal's ear) had similar political fallout and this case would probably be worse. The scandal that came out of the bungled Mashal assassination probably played a role in Netanyahu's 1999 loss in his run for reelection.

Here's the wikipedia article on the killing: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassi...oud_al-Mabhouh. For more info, go on Google news or something similar and search for "Al-Mabhouh", there are countless articles discussing various aspects of the operation.

What do you guys think of this, and it's implications for the region?

I don't buy for a second that anyone besides the Mossad was responsible. They are the agency (with the capability to pull this off) that has the greatest motive. The IDF assassinates Hamas leaders frequently in the Gaza strip, so this is by no means outrageous. The only reason this is grabbing so much media attention is because it happened in Dubai, and for good reason the ruler of Dubai feels like making a deal of this.
And just going off the passport pictures of the assassins, I have a hard time believing any Arab or Palestinian group was behind this. I know intelligence agencies go out of their way to recruit members of different ethnicity, but their faces look like those of European Jews (call me crazy - and I do realize the Mossad probably has many non-European non-Jewish assassins). It is certainly possible, and even likely, that Fatah supplied information on al-Mabhouh's whereabouts, but the attack itself is way beyond their capability. Reports of Mabhouh's cause of death say he was paralyzed via electric shock and then suffocated - meaning whoever killed him tried to make it look as natural as possible. I doubt any Palestinian group is capable of an assassination of this complexity. It has to be state sponsored and the most obvious suspect is the Mossad.

EDIT - As for implications: I generally don't buy all the 'outrage' that is coming out of the UK foreign ministry. Once it hit the newsstands that the assassins used British passports, it was probably standard protocol for them to express outrage. This will all blow over in a few months as nobody in the west or the UAE really cares for Hamas. I'm pretty surprised at all the media coverage this has gotten. Prior to this assassination, it seemed as though Hamas leaders were a dime a dozen, dying left and right.

Well, it's been suggested that if the culprit wasn't Mossad, the hit squad may have been hired--"mercenaries", for lack of a better word. The disguises and coordination were certainly fairly sophisticated, but as for electrocution and suffocation, all that takes is a stun gun and a pillow or a plastic bag (which in fact is one of the methods that's been suggested to explain how he died). Although there have also been reports that he was electrocuted using the wiring from one of the room's lamps. Until a detailed cause of death is known I guess we can't say for sure.

While I hear what you're saying--Mossad definitely has the motive and capability--I don't think there's enough evidence right now to support the claim that any other explanation is ludicrous. Because that basically means claiming that no-one else in the world has the motive and capability, which is far from certain at this point. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be Mossad but right now the evidence is circumstantial. I think a lot of people in the Arab world (and the world in general) are making the same assumption you are simply because so many people in the Arab world think that the sinister Zionist conspiracy is behind every bad thing that happens.

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Originally Posted by mrbazoun

Prior to this assassination, it seemed as though Hamas leaders were a dime a dozen, dying left and right.

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Yeah but most of them just get creamed by a Hellfire missile while they're sitting in their house/driving down the street in Gaza. The ones that happen in other countries do tend to attract more attention for obvious reasons, since they necessarily involve Israeli agents operating illegally in foreign states, which makes them automatic international incidents. Not just this one; others that happened outside Israel/Palestine (Mughniyah, and especially the Mashal attempt) have attracted similarly high levels of attention. The theatrical spy-novel aspects of this one, as with the Mashal attempt, increase international interest too.

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Originally Posted by mrbazoun

] I'm pretty surprised at all the media coverage this has gotten. Prior to this assassination, it seemed as though Hamas leaders were a dime a dozen, dying left and right.

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I feel you answered your own question here:

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The only reason this is grabbing so much media attention is because it happened in Dubai, and for good reason the ruler of Dubai feels like making a deal of this.

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Even though Syme pretty much summed it, I'll add that the UAE, and Dubai in particular, is the one place in the Middle East where things like this aren't suppose to happen. Perhaps that explains the carelessness with which al-Mabhouh prepared his trip (ordering his tickets online, telephoning his family in Gaza about his trip). It's almost as shocking as the assassination of Alexander Litvinenko in London for this reason as well as the reasons Syme stated.

In addition, even though relations between Israel and the UAE have been "icy," to say the least, as far as I'm aware this is the closest thing to an incursion that Israel has committed against them.

And even though this may or may not be why this story is prominent in the media, Dubai was also hit disproportionately hard by the economic crisis. Not too long after the crisis hit, they even have had to turn to Abu-Dhabi for assistance. Though I cannot guess what impact it will really have in the end, this can't be good for the city's image.

Looks like it was the Mossad.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle7034933.ece

That article you link to doesn't seem to contain any reliable info to support that conclusion.

The head of the GCC is now saying it was organized crime, though until solid evidence is made public, that's just as much of a useless sound-bite as the accusations the UAE cops have made against Israel. And apparently the Syrians have now detained a Hamas figure named Mohammed Nasser, and some other Hamas members, in connection with the killing.

Still waiting on information that will enable us to actually draw defensible conclusions. None has yet surfaced.

My gut says that Israel is not behind this. But given the obvious bias of my gut, it's not to be trusted. I'm with Syme -- this is an occasion to wait for some real evidence. Till then, I'm not vilifying anyone.

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Originally Posted by gwahir

My gut says that Israel is not behind this. But given the obvious bias of my gut, it's not to be trusted.

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When I read this article, my gut is telling me that it's hungry for shwarma, fattoush, and hummus bi tahina. oh and fatteh. god i love fatteh.

and, err, babaganoush.

the bias of my gut is to be trusted in matters culinary.

unfortunately, and it probably needn't be pointed out but w/e's, the arab countries are going to stick this on
mossad until they know for certain it was another organization that did this. in middle eastern international affairs, parties are typically guilty until proven innocent when tensions already exist.

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The head of the GCC is now saying it was organized crime, though until solid evidence is made public, that's just as much of a useless sound-bite as the accusations the UAE cops have made against Israel. And apparently the Syrians have now detained a Hamas figure named Mohammed Nasser, and some other Hamas members, in connection with the killing.

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At least as far as the GCC statement, I think this is the article AFP article that has been going around: http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100223...tconflicthamas

I got the feeling that the "organized criminal group" reference, in the (translated?) words of Secretary General Abdel Rahim al-Attiyam, isn't an indication that they are ruling out Mossad. I thought it was simply rhetoric condemning whatever group committed this act, whether it be Mossad or not. I recognize that it hardly matters at this point, as you stated.

Still, I think it was probably Mossad, though of course there is no definitive evidence connecting them to the assassination, so no definite conclusions can be reached


As an update to this story, UAE police have listed 26 suspects involved in the assassination. Also, the European passports they had carried contained the identities of real people who were not at all connected to this plot:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100224/...YtZHViYWlub3dz

IRT Syme - I guess I overrated the complexity of a death by electrocution and suffocation - it does seem simpler now that you point it out.
I suppose I find it silly debating who is responsible when all we are going off is some bozo at the Dubai Police dpt - especially when it is so reasonable, logical & likely that some Israeli agency is behind it. But you are right, we shouldn't be jumping to conclusions. The Middle East is so damn fragmented and the Palestinians aren't united in the least. Almost anything is possible.
Quote: "The theatrical spy-novel aspects of this one, as with the Mashal attempt, increase international interest too" - Syme

That is a great point. There is even footage of the agents entering bathroom stalls and emerging with newly glued(?) facial hair. I can't tell you how many disgusting articles I've read which address just this 'theatrical' aspect of the incident, and fail to condemn in any language the assassination.

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Originally Posted by sycld

unfortunately, and it probably needn't be pointed out but w/e's, the arab countries are going to stick this on
mossad until they know for certain it was another organization that did this. in middle eastern international affairs, parties are typically guilty until proven innocent when tensions already exist.

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That's a good point. Just like how Hariri's death was and is still widely blamed on the Syrians even though there is next to no evidence.

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Originally Posted by gwahir

My gut says that Israel is not behind this. But given the obvious bias of my gut, it's not to be trusted.

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I am curious why your gut thinks someone besides Israel is behind this. Gut feelings don't require explanations I guess, but if there is one would you please explain.

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Originally Posted by Syme

That article you link to doesn't seem to contain any reliable info to support that conclusion.

The head of the GCC is now saying it was organized crime, though until solid evidence is made public, that's just as much of a useless sound-bite as the accusations the UAE cops have made against Israel. And apparently the Syrians have now detained a Hamas figure named Mohammed Nasser, and some other Hamas members, in connection with the killing.

Still waiting on information that will enable us to actually draw defensible conclusions. None has yet surfaced.

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I didn't mean to imply that i was definitely them just that it looks like them even more.

In my opinion, this operation has in fact all the hallmarks of a sophisticated operation by Israel which was only traced back to them due to overconfidence of making a successful getway.

The last report I read indicated as many as 26 operatives were involve. The operation was highly organised, obviously well funded and appeared cool and calm on the surveillance footage when making their get away.

The icing on the cake is the appearance of the assassins. When the pictures were released, they caused an uproar in Israel, because of how familiar the faces were. Many Jewish news reports have also mentioned how much the operatives have a strong resemblance to the typical Jewish citizen.

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Originally Posted by Front-page headline from Israel's largest selling newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth

"They looked like Itzik from the kibbutz"

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Originally Posted by Israel Today, Yoav Limor

"It's true that they had foreign passports and went by names such as Gail and Kevin, but you tell me: is it possible that even one of us isn't going to be standing on line at the bank or sitting on a train today, only to look at the person next to him and wonder whether he isn't that fellow from the picture, the one who killed Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai?"

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The alternative is basically that there is some other highly organised, well funded outfit (read: state agency) out there who has a motive for killing Hamas operatives, who has 1 or 2 dozen operatives working for them that all look remarkably Jewish.

I think the whole "they look Jewish" thing is a crock of shit.

http://www.middle-east-online.com/pi..._Assassins.jpg

Going from top to bottom, left to right: #1, maybe 2, 6, and 8 maybe 10 look "stereotypically Jewish"; #3, 5, 9, and 11 look generically Caucasian to me; #4 and 7 could as easily be Arabs as they could be anyone else (probably it looks that way because of the facial hair). These are the original 11 of course, I haven't seen pictures of the other 15, but I doubt that most or all of them looked "remarkably Jewish" either. I think people are grasping at straws and/or letting themselves be swayed by their a priori assumption that Mossad is responsible, so that when they then look at the faces they say to themselves "oh yeah, what a bunch of Jews they look like".

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Originally Posted by Syme

I think the whole "they look Jewish" thing is a crock of shit.

http://www.middle-east-online.com/pi..._Assassins.jpg

Going from top to bottom, left to right: #1, maybe 2, 6, and 8 maybe 10 look "stereotypically Jewish"; #3, 5, 9, and 11 look generically Caucasian to me; #4 and 7 could as easily be Arabs as they could be anyone else (probably it looks that way because of the facial hair).

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I disagree. I don't think any of those assassins look like Arabs, especially 4 & 7, who look very much like Ashkenazi Jews (they originated in Eastern Europe). Obviously this is rather dumb because I am saying someone looks like a Jew, when it is a religion. There is no Jewish race in my opinion (most are of European descent, which means they are not of a religious bloodline. The Jews originating in the Middle East are Arabs). Israel definitely has a lot of Arab Jews (or even Muslims) as spies, but obviously they have a lot more Caucasians (since that is what constitutes the majority of their population). On the other hand, I doubt any Arab intelligence agency has near as many Caucasian spies as they do Arab spies. This is significant because this team of approx. 25 individuals does not appear to have any Arabs. I would be surprised if an intelligence agency with a majority of Arab spies assembled a large assassination team with not one member who is clearly and visually an Arab. It's definitely something to think about. It could have no significance, or be key evidence.

So it's not that they look like Jews (this doesn't even make sense), it's that they look like Caucasians. This in my opinion incriminates the west, which Israel loves to include itself in.

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Originally Posted by mrbazoun

So it's not that they look like Jews (this doesn't even make sense), it's that they look like Caucasians. This in my opinion incriminates the west, which Israel loves to include itself in.

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Oh right, because if any Arab group really wanted to, they couldn't recruit 25 European-looking people to carry out their dirty work, or Mossad couldn't pick 25 of their Ashkenazi agents who looked less Ashkenazi than is typical.

Also, your accusation of this being some conspiracy of Israel and "the West" against the Arabs is baseless and sounds paranoid.

Your line of reasoning is absurd. Most likely it was either Mossad i(which circumstantial evidence is already suggesting) or it was some other group in the Middle East that had help from Hamas defectors. There's no reason at this point to think that any European or North American country had anything to do with this.

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Originally Posted by sycld

Oh right, because if any Arab group really wanted to, they couldn't recruit 25 European-looking people to carry out their dirty work, or Mossad couldn't pick 25 of their Ashkenazi agents who looked less Ashkenazi than is typical.

Also, your accusation of this being some conspiracy of Israel and "the West" against the Arabs is baseless and sounds paranoid.

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I don't think agencies will select entire assassination teams based on race. Twenty-five people is a lot, if it's true then you have to consider if it is worth it for any group or agency to select assassins solely based on race (and in the process forgoing priorities such as ability/skill). I also doubt that an Arab group could "recruit" 25 reliable and skillful Caucasians to assassinate a political leader in another foreign country. The only reason you should continue to disagree is if you know/assume there to be a giant spy industry which can provide large numbers of agents to foreign parties. That honestly may be the case, just look at all the war-profiteering pvt. "security" firms there are. For example, the scandalous Blackwater, which now goes by Xe Services. This corp. owns Greystone Limited - "A private security service, Greystone is registered in Barbados, and employs third country nationals for offshore security work through its affiliate Satelles Solutions, Inc. http://www.sunstar.com.ph/static/man/2006/06/17/news/senator.to.look.into.mercenary.list.up.exercises.i n.subic.html There are probably 50 private military companies for every one we hear about on the news. And if you don't think the agents are being supplied by private companies, you must think there are many reliable rogue mercenaries that do not identify with a single country or a single corporate affiliation. I'm assuming that is not possible.
The questions are:
(1)Does Israel have a private security industry? And if not, (2) have foreign security companies ever supplied Israel with assassins?

So it's possible it's insignificant, I think I made that clear in the post you replied to. I also did not suggest any sort of conspiracy whatsoever. It is just that while considering the possible assassins, I tend to divide it been the west and the Arab world. It could have come from either side. Or maybe they worked together, as Arab countries with officially cold relations with Israel have been discovered collaborating with Israeli intelligence. I am suspicious of the US or Israel working with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan or even ironically the UAE! Also, whether or not there is a conspiracy, the west (again, including Israel) has not had a hands off policy regarding covert operations in the Middle East (European countries included although somehow I bet they conduct operations/assassinations in the present day ME very rarely if ever - this essentially limits the west down to the US & Israel). And obviously Israel is the one with the clearest motive.

EDIT: After reading this post I created under the influence, I may have obsessed on a few things. Oh well

Ahem, http://blogs.aljazeera.net/middle-east/2010/02/25/obvious-role-us-investigators-dubai-murder-case

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Originally Posted by Syme

I think the whole "they look Jewish" thing is a crock of shit.

http://www.middle-east-online.com/pi..._Assassins.jpg

Going from top to bottom, left to right: #1, maybe 2, 6, and 8 maybe 10 look "stereotypically Jewish"; #3, 5, 9, and 11 look generically Caucasian to me; #4 and 7 could as easily be Arabs as they could be anyone else (probably it looks that way because of the facial hair). These are the original 11 of course, I haven't seen pictures of the other 15, but I doubt that most or all of them looked "remarkably Jewish" either. I think people are grasping at straws and/or letting themselves be swayed by their a priori assumption that Mossad is responsible, so that when they then look at the faces they say to themselves "oh yeah, what a bunch of Jews they look like".

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Well frankly, I don't think that you or I are qualified to assess if these individuals appear to be Israeli Jews or not, so your assessment of whether they are or are not would seem to be moot.

What I do know however is that individuals of a given racial group ARE better able to identify individuals from their own racial group, far better than individuals from other racial groups are able to. I can probably dig up some links to studies that prove this if you like.

This means that if you want to ask someone "is this person a Jewish Israeli", the best people to ask are the exact same people (i.e the Jewish Israeli public) who are seemingly already convinced that the operatives were in fact Jewish Israelis.

Right, I'm not saying that my guesstimates about the ethnic origin of the people in that photo are conclusively correct, just airing my opinion that the "they look Jewish" argument is a thin one. I'm airing this opinion in response to your statement that they "all looked remarkably Jewish". I have been to and traveled in Israel, for what that's worth.

But anyhow, the idea that "Israeli Jews" constitute a distinct "racial group" is frankly laughable. The Israeli public is strongly multi-ethnic, your suggestion that they're all from a common "racial group" and thus can reliably spot fellow members of that "racial group" is total crap. They are a mish-mash of people with ethnic origins running back to all parts of Europe along with Western Asia and the Arab world. The Israeli public's assumptions about the ethnic origins of these people, especially based on low-quality passport photos, are no more valid than your assumptions or mine. Especially since, like most everyone else, they are already making a prior assumption (reasonable as it may be) that Mossad was responsible, which will of course color their reactions to the photos.

I don't know what makes mrbazoun think that the guys in photos #4 and 7 look "very much like" Ashkenazi Jews. They could be, but they could just as easily be ethnic Arabs. They would easily blend in with the majority of people on the streets of Amman or Cairo. Which is what I said in the first place--I didn't say that they looked particularly like Arabs, what I said was that they could as easily be Arabs as they could be (non-Arab) Jews or anyone else.

EDIT: Also, new info: Some of the suspects in the assassination apparently fled from Dubai into Iran after the hit.

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Originally Posted by Syme

I don't know what makes mrbazoun think that the guys in photos #4 and 7 look "very much like" Ashkenazi Jews. They could be, but they could just as easily be ethnic Arabs. They would easily blend in with the majority of people on the streets of Amman or Cairo. Which is what I said in the first place--I didn't say that they looked particularly like Arabs, what I said was that they could as easily be Arabs as they could be (non-Arab) Jews or anyone else.
EDIT: Also, new info: Some of the suspects in the assassination apparently fled from Dubai into Iran after the hit.

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What makes me think they could be Ashkenazi Jews is that they look like Ashkenazi Jews, although I never said I was certain. Who knows who they are, but those pictures seem to be proportionally similar to Israel's demographic. It could be insignificant, but my expert ass bets it's evidence.

And where did you hear some of the suspects fled to Dubai?

Syme's point is that it's worthless as evidence. It means nothing. Less than nothing, because a group of Arab spies could easily select its most Ashkenazi-Jew-looking agents to go make the hit.

Just stop clutching at straws, basically. I don't think any of us here would be terribly surprised if they WERE Israelis, but apparently unlike you, the rest of us are willing to go by actual, rather than preposterous, evidence.

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Originally Posted by mrbazoun

What makes me think they could be Ashkenazi Jews is that they look like Ashkenazi Jews, although I never said I was certain.

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Right, what I'm baffled about is what has lead you to believe in the first place that their appearance is particularly indicative of membership in that ethnic group. In other words, the fact that you said that they "look very much like" (your exact words) Ashkenazi Jews leaves me scratching my head, puzzled--because their faces would be right at home anywhere in the Mediterranean world. Earlier I said they could easily be Arabs. They could also easily be Turks, Armenians, Greeks, Bulgarians, or any of a dozen other ethnic/national origins. Yeah they could be Ashkenazi too; but you didn't just say they "could be" Ashkenazi, you decided that Ashkenazi Jews in particular, and not any other group, are what they "look very much like". Again, those were your exact words. So I'm wondering what makes you think they look particularly like Ashkenazi Jews rather than anything else. I've been through Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, and Egypt in addition to Israel; and in Istanbul, Amman, Beirut, and Cairo/Helwan I saw plenty of people who look like those two guys. So your pegging them as Ashkenazi makes me suspect--again--that you are letting your assumptions/suspicions towards the Mossad color your reactions to the photos.

Bear in mind that even if they aren't Ashkenazi Jews, that certainly doesn't mean they aren't Mossad agents. As I mentioned earlier, Israel's population is very multi-ethnic. They could easily be Bulgarians, Arabs, or whatever AND be Mossad agents (and Jews as well, in fact).

Ultimately, though, gwahir is right: This whole business about what they look like is preposterous clutching at straws. You aren't going to be able to look at low-quality passport photos and draw any defensible conclusions about the ethnic origin of these people. You can draw conclusions all you want, don't get me wrong--they'll just be indefensible ones. Israel is definitely the #1 suspect, no question about it, but this ridiculous attempt to say "they got Jew faces!" and act like it's another item of evidence on the pile against Israel is just silly.

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Originally Posted by mrbazoun

And where did you hear some of the suspects fled to Dubai?

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Since the killing was IN Dubai, I don't think many suspects then fled TO Dubai. What I said was that two of the suspects fled to Iran. As for where I heard it, it was announced by the Dubai cops at least a week ago, and has been mentioned in a number of stories. Although now headlines seem to be saying that they fled "through" Iran rather than "to" Iran. Here's one:

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=169561

Quote: "Three of the suspects - those holding Australian passports, one of them a woman - apparently fled Dubai following the assassination by boarding a ship to Iran."

Well I don't think those guys look Arabic at all. I haven't been all over the M.E., but I am an Arab who has been to Lebanon and Syria. Obviously this is so inexact b/c every race has outliers who look very different from the norm. It would have to be the most coincidental thing ever if those two guys did turn out to be Ashkenazis, I'm not confident. I was simply saying they look like them. But I guess there really wouldn't be a difference between a random Eastern European and a random Ashkenazi, so maybe my suspicions are affecting my judgment. Again though, the racial make-up of the suspects does point to America and/or Israel. Nobody is saying they have 'Jew faces,' just European/white ones, for the most part. And pardon my typo.

EDIT: I think it is wrong to dismiss the photos of the suspects as 'preposterous' evidence. That is what this disagreement boils down to. Nobody bothers to consider the impracticality/impossibility of employing a bunch of white assassins to confuse everyone on the origin of the attack. That is some far-fetched bullshit. If you ignore all my points, respond to just this one.

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Originally Posted by mrbazoun

EDIT: I think it is wrong to dismiss the photos of the suspects as 'preposterous' evidence. That is what this disagreement boils down to. Nobody bothers to consider the impracticality/impossibility of employing a bunch of white assassins to confuse everyone on the origin of the attack. That is some far-fetched bullshit. If you ignore all my points, respond to just this one.

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I may be mistaken in the point I am about to make, so do tell me if I am, but: who was it, again, who blew up a bomb in the London underground? What was his ethnicity?

(Even if I am wrong -- I recall that it was a white Londoner -- the point remains that it seems to me to be ludicrously easy to recruit a bunch of foreign assassins who are politically sympathetic to make the hit. Not far-fetched in the slightest. Especially considering how many politically sympathetic foreigners there ARE in the world.)

I think the photos should be dismissed as meaningless until or unless they can be paired with or used to discover the guys' identities. Their look is absolutely not meaningful in any way.

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Originally Posted by gwahir

I may be mistaken in the point I am about to make, so do tell me if I am, but: who was it, again, who blew up a bomb in the London underground? What was his ethnicity?

(Even if I am wrong -- I recall that it was a white Londoner -- the point remains that it seems to me to be ludicrously easy to recruit a bunch of foreign assassins who are politically sympathetic to make the hit. Not far-fetched in the slightest. Especially considering how many politically sympathetic foreigners there ARE in the world.)

I think the photos should be dismissed as meaningless until or unless they can be paired with or used to discover the guys' identities. Their look is absolutely not meaningful in any way.

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it's the guilty expressions which jews constantly have that give these guys away.

it's like i can hear the "oy, gevalts" by just looking at the photos.

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Originally Posted by gwahir

I may be mistaken in the point I am about to make, so do tell me if I am, but: who was it, again, who blew up a bomb in the London underground? What was his ethnicity?

(Even if I am wrong -- I recall that it was a white Londoner -- the point remains that it seems to me to be ludicrously easy to recruit a bunch of foreign assassins who are politically sympathetic to make the hit. Not far-fetched in the slightest. Especially considering how many politically sympathetic foreigners there ARE in the world.)

I think the photos should be dismissed as meaningless until or unless they can be paired with or used to discover the guys' identities. Their look is absolutely not meaningful in any way.

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Four Brits, 3 Pakis, and one Jamaican.

I definitely see your point but there just seem to be so many differences between these 2 scenarios. One is an assassination, the other a terrorist attack. One involves 7 people while the other has close to 30. I do believe it to be possible for an Arab group to recruit 30 white people to assassinate someone, I just find it extremely unlikely they would go through the trouble for Hamas (especially considering all those legit fake passports) But yeah, i've made my point.

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Originally Posted by mrbazoun

Nobody is saying they have 'Jew faces,' just European/white ones, for the most part.

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This is what you said:

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Originally Posted by mrbazoun

The alternative is basically that there is some other highly organised, well funded outfit (read: state agency) out there who has a motive for killing Hamas operatives, who has 1 or 2 dozen operatives working for them that all look remarkably Jewish.

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Not white, not European, not Caucasian, but "remarkably Jewish".

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Originally Posted by mrbazoun

EDIT: I think it is wrong to dismiss the photos of the suspects as 'preposterous' evidence. That is what this disagreement boils down to. Nobody bothers to consider the impracticality/impossibility of employing a bunch of white assassins to confuse everyone on the origin of the attack. That is some far-fetched bullshit. If you ignore all my points, respond to just this one.

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I really, seriously don't think the photos in and of themselves have much value as evidence at all (more on that below). But what I'm calling preposterous isn't the idea of using the photos as evidence, it's the idea of looking at the photos and then saying "Oh what a pack of Jews they look like, that's another thing to throw on the pile of evidence pointing to Mossad!" And as I've said before, I do think Mossad is the prime suspect here, so it's not like I'm refusing to accept that possibility and trying to dismiss anything that incriminates them.

Yeah, the hit squad appears to be predominantly Caucasian. Yeah, if VEVAK or an Arab intelligence agency picked 20 people at random from their personnel files, they wouldn't come up with a mix that looks like that. Frankly, though, I don't think you or I or any of us is qualified to comment on how impractical it would be, or how close to "impossible" it would be, or whether it's "far-fetched bullshit", for an intelligence agency to get two dozen white-looking people for an operation like this. I really have no idea whether it's near-impossible or comparatively easy or somewhere in between, and I'm fairly sure you don't either. That's the sort of intelligence tradecraft thing that us ordinary civilians really can't guess at very effectively. The possibility of organized crime involvement (which was mentioned in some early reports on the killing, although I haven't heard much about it recently) makes it even harder to say anything meaningful about the impracticality of it.

Once again, I do think Mossad is the most likely culprit. I just don't think that the fact that the killers are "white-looking" is a point of evidence against Mossad.

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Originally Posted by Syme

This is what you said:



Not white, not European, not Caucasian, but "remarkably Jewish".

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That is Mr Shrike's quote. I never said that.

I can't be sure on the impracticality of employing 30 white assassins. It is something to keep in mind though.

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Originally Posted by mrbazoun

That is Mr Shrike's quote. I never said that.

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Ahh oops sorry about that... somehow I thought you had said it. My mistake.

Look I don't think it's an absolutely open and shut case, but I think all the available evidence implicates Mossad and I understand that Israeli has pointedly not denied that this done by Mossad.

In the absence of any real possibility of knowing beyond reasonable doubt (unless further evidence comes to light), I think we can safely conclude this was their work and then go on with discussing the moral and political implications.

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Originally Posted by MrShrike

...I understand that Israeli has pointedly not denied that this done by Mossad.

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But that doesn't tell you anything, because the Israeli government's policy is to NEVER confirm or deny that they were responsible for an assassination, regardless of the truth. The point of this policy is precisely to prevent people from being able to draw any conclusions about these things from Israeli official responses. E.g., if they followed a policy of denying responsibility for killings they really didn't do, and remaining silent about killings they did do, their silence would be the same thing as an admission of responsibility, and people would be able to justifiably make the argument that you've just tried to make.

But yes, as I've said, I think Israel is clearly the #1 suspect and I'm perfectly fine with assuming they are responsible for the purpose of discussing moral and political implications. To my mind, the most significant implication is the effect this could have on Israeli relations with the countries whose passports were used. Gotta run now but I'll have more to say on this tomorrow.

To me, the moral implications are more interesting than the political ones.

Israel's gotten a lot of flak for this whole business. Leaving aside the possibility that it wasn't them, should they be getting all that guff?

Generally speaking, I personally don't view it as morally reprehensible for a country or group that's involved in warfare (declared/official or otherwise) to carry out assassinations or "targeted killings" of enemy leadership. I know a lot of people disagree and see assassination as something fundamentally immoral. I don't, though. It strikes me as being just as legitimate and defensible, if not more so, than a soldier firing his rifle at an enemy soldier who's coming at him. I don't have a moral objection to the Israelis bumping off Hamas commanders, and I wouldn't have a moral objection to Hamas bumping off IDF commanders either. To me what's morally reprehensible are the attacks that affect civilians/innocents, whether it's Hamas launching rockets that hit schools or the IDF firing missiles/bombs that blow up civilian residences.

What do you think of the false passports? Are they the affront to international respect they're being reported to be?

Well, in my opinion, not really. I understand why countries are upset about their passports being used by a hit squad, but at the same time, don't try to tell me that, for instance, the British have never used passports from other countries for their own intelligence operatives when sending them abroad for clandestine/covert activities. So no, I don't really think it's some big affront to the principles of international respect. It's part of doing business in the world of intelligence and everyone does it even if no-one talks about it publicly. But since Israel got caught doing it, and in such a brazen and controversial operation... again, I understand why some of these countries are miffed. And of course their displeasure has to be voiced in condemnatory tones. They can't just say "damnit Israel we all know that all our spy services do this, but we're pissed off that you got caught doing it on an assassination". They have to act like they're seriously affronted by the act itself.

Funny thing is, assuming Israel really is behind this killing, it wouldn't be the first time they've screwed up like this. When they tried to kill Khalid Mashaal in 1997, the hit team entered Jordan with Canadian passports, which caused a similar diplomatic flap with Canada when they bungled the job and got caught. This is one of the reasons I'm still not entirely comfortable assuming Mossad responsibility for the Al-Mabhouh killing, since it would mean that they are repeating techniques which have gotten them into trouble in the past.

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Originally Posted by Syme

Generally speaking, I personally don't view it as morally reprehensible for a country or group that's involved in warfare (declared/official or otherwise) to carry out assassinations or "targeted killings" of enemy leadership. I know a lot of people disagree and see assassination as something fundamentally immoral. I don't, though. It strikes me as being just as legitimate and defensible, if not more so, than a soldier firing his rifle at an enemy soldier who's coming at him. I don't have a moral objection to the Israelis bumping off Hamas commanders, and I wouldn't have a moral objection to Hamas bumping off IDF commanders either. To me what's morally reprehensible are the attacks that affect civilians/innocents, whether it's Hamas launching rockets that hit schools or the IDF firing missiles/bombs that blow up civilian residences.

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I pretty much agree here. Furthermore, the soldiers in the field are only doing what they're forced to do by their superiors. They're not necessarily the ideological banner-bearers that their overseers are, yet they are expected to pay the ultimate price.

I think the reasons why assassinations are viewed as immoral is because they are unsporting: the target is caught more or less unawares, the attackers are not in soldiers' uniforms, etc. Also, at least for some of us, the word "assassination" conjures up images of some truly immoral events, such as the mid-century CIA assassinations of democratically elected leaders in Latin American countries.

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Originally Posted by Syme

But since Israel got caught doing it, and in such a brazen and controversial operation... again, I understand why some of these countries are miffed. And of course their displeasure has to be voiced in condemnatory tones. They can't just say "damnit Israel we all know that all our spy services do this, but we're pissed off that you got caught doing it on an assassination". They have to act like they're seriously affronted by the act itself.

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Or "You have so little respect for us that you'll brazenly use passports faked from our countries on an assassination and allow them to be found so easily?"

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Funny thing is, assuming Israel really is behind this killing, it wouldn't be the first time they've screwed up like this. When they tried to kill Khalid Mashaal in 1997, the hit team entered Jordan with Canadian passports, which caused a similar diplomatic flap with Canada when they bungled the job and got caught. This is one of the reasons I'm still not entirely comfortable assuming Mossad responsibility for the Al-Mabhouh killing, since it would mean that they are repeating techniques which have gotten them into trouble in the past.

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Actually, that's one reason why I would think it is truly Mossad. Organizations like this often times don't learn from their mistakes, and what was done wrong is often enough a mark of a particular organization as is what was done right.