My Week 15 Picks (Gambling Style)

**Nauticat** · 12-09-2008, 10:43 AM

Every week from here (Yes I know the season is almost over) I will be picking against the spread and over/under for the NFL. I will also do this for all of the College bowl games.

This is all a bit of fun, and although I bet on each of my picks, I do not encourage you to do so as you should only bet on your own opinion. Here we go.

Saints At Bears

Spread - Saints + 3, Bears - 3
Over/under - 44

I would take the Saints with the points. In what will ultimately be a close game, Reggie Bush will be the deciding factor. With the safeties having to support against the run/screen pass, expect to see Brees find Moore and Colston in the End Zone more than once. Also expect Forte to have a monster game. Take the over on the points.

Steelers At Ravens

Spread - Steelers + 2, Ravens - 2
Over/Under - 34

I would take the Steelers to get the win outright on the road. Not only do I think they will win this game, but I think they will win it by 6 or more points. Although the Ravens run defense is simply ridiculous, I still think the Steelers have an explosive edge to their offense that the Ravens lack. Take the under on the points.

Titans At Texans

Spread - Titans - 3, Texans + 3
Ovewr/Under - 44

I think this will be a closer game than most people expect, but take the Titans to cover the points. Although Hosuton's offense was explosive last week, I dont think they maintain the same threat against the Titans. The Texans will have to slow down White/Johnson if they want to win this one, but that is easier said than done. Expect the Titans to maintain the ball for almost 40 minutes of this game. Take the under on the points.

Chargers At Chiefs

Spread - Chargers - 5.5, Chiefs + 5.5
Over/Under - 46.5

I picked the Chiefs with the points earlier in the season and won the bet, but I wont be doing that again. Expect the Chargers to put a good old fashion wooping on the Chiefs. I took the Chargers to cover points, and then some. Huge game and numbers for Philip Rivers. Take the over on the Points.

Bills At Jets

Spread - Bills + 7, Jets - 7
Over/Under - 41

Take the Jets to cover points. With no one able to solidify the QB position in Buffallo, expect the Jets to bounce back in a big way this week. Take the over on the points.

49ers At Dolphins

Spread - 49ers + 6.5, Dolphins - 6.5
Over/Under - 41.5

Mike Singletary has instilled a mentality in San Fransisco that breeds winning. That being said, I think the Dolphins will win, but I pick the 49ers with the points. The Wildcat has been tamed to an extent, but Chad Pennington is having a Pro Bowl year in my opinion, and I look to him to win this game for the Dolphins. Take the under on the points.

Lions At Colts

Spread - Lions + 17, Colts -17
Over/Under - 44.5

Oh boy. This could get ugly. Simply put, take the Colts to cover the points. They are playing that good. Heck, with the way the Lions are playing, the Colts could cover the Over/Under by themselves! The Lions will put up some points atleast, so take the over on the points.

Packers At Jaguars

Spread - Packers - 1, Jaguars + 1.
Over/Under - 45

With how poorly the Packers defence has been playing, it is very hard for me to pick them in this game. But I will. Aaron Rogers is very good, and has a good career ahead of him, and for that reason alone I see him trying to salvage a bit of pride from this season by beating the Jaguars in Florida. Take the under on the points.

Patriots At Raiders

Spread - Patriots -7, Raiders + 7.
Over/Under - 39.5

I favour the Patriots by exactly 7. Which is handy. They should, and will cover, but it wont be as big of a blowout as it should be. Expect the Raiders to hit 150 Rushing yards as a team comfortably. Take the Over on the points.

Giants At Cowboys

Spread - Giants + 3, Cowboys - 3.
Over/Under - 44.

Despite losing last week, and losing Plaxico, this is still the best team in the NFL. The Giants will win this outright, making the speak irrelevant. I do choose the Giants despite how well the Cowboys played in a losing effort to the Steelers, but I don't see them making the playoffs. Take the over on the points.

Browns At Eagles

Spread - Browns + 14, Eagles - 14
Over/Under - 38.5

The Browns have no QB. Dorsey should not be starting Anywhere. That being said, I take the Browns with the points. The Eagles will win this, but I find it hard to give them a margin of victory more than 14 points. Take the under on the points.

There we have it. All feedback and opinions welcome!

**Pepsi** · 12-09-2008, 09:30 PM

You spent too much time on this.

**Pepsi** · 12-09-2008, 09:31 PM

Also, the Cowboys currently have the second wild card spot.

I'd say they have something to fight for.

**Nauticat** · 12-10-2008, 05:51 AM

Originally Posted by Pepsi

Also, the Cowboys currently have the second wild card spot.

I'd say they have something to fight for.

Cowboys dont make the Playoffs. I guarantee that.

**Mr. E** · 12-10-2008, 07:54 AM

You are right, the Cowboys will not make the playoffs. The NFC South is too strong.

Would you mind explaining what all those numbers mean? I've started seeing them more and more, but I have no idea what an over or an under is, and googling hasn't helped to bring me any answers.

**Atmosfear** · 12-10-2008, 11:43 AM

Team A +3/Team B -3

You bet either either team, + or - that number of points. Those points are added/subtracted from the final score to determine the winner of the bet. So if you took Team A +3 and the score of the game was Team A 20, Team B 21, then you would add +3 to Team A's score for a final of 23-21, and would win the bet.

If you say a team is "favored by X points" that means they are Team -X. If you say a team is a "Y-point underdog" that means they are Team +Y.

The important thing to remember about spreads is that Vegas wins on the odds (these bets never pay a perfect 1:1.) The purpose of the spread is to make sure the amount of money Vegas has on Team A is equal to the amount of money they have on Team B. This means that performance is a major factor (of which, obviously, Vegas has waaaay better, more pertinent stats than you), but perception and betting tendencies are another (of which, obviously, Vegas has waaaaaay better, more pertinent stats than you.) College football is subject to greater spreads (because the talent differential between 2 college teams varied much more than 2 pro teams), so you find a lot of spreads of 2 touchdowns or more. A lot of times these are sucker bets, set higher to generate betting on the underdog (give them some points, people will bet.)

The point line is much simpler. That's looking for the total points scored in the game. You decide whether or not you want to bet the total score is "over" the line or "under" the line. If the line is 42.5 points, and the game ends 7-3, the under wins. If the line is 42.5, and the game ends 42-0, the under still wins. Likewise, if the line is 42.5 and the games ends 21-22, the over wins.

The line is set to balance bets just the same as the spread, so you have to be careful there as well. Personally, I never bet the under; if I think it's going to be an under, I won't bet the game. There are too many things that can happen in garbage time if the game is close (basketball is the worst because a game that's not really close in the final 5 minutes can see point totals increase 20% with fouling.) I had an incident betting the under in the Bears-Colts Superbowl a couple years ago (first 2 plays were touchdowns...) The game ended with the Colts having the ball deep in Bears' territory with the total score at like 41 with a line of 42. The only reason I won the bet was because Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith are childhood friends and Dungy decided to start downing the ball to run out the clock rather than continue driving and/or kick a chip shot.