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Thread: Academy Awards Breakdown: Everything You Need to Know About the 2010 Oscar Race

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    Merry fucking Christmas Atmosfear's Avatar
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    Default Academy Awards Breakdown: Everything You Need to Know About the 2010 Oscar Race

    Best Picture
    Nominees:
    Avatar
    The Blind Side
    District 9
    An Education
    The Hurt Locker
    Inglourious Basterds
    Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
    A Serious Man
    Up
    Up in the Air

    Who's Gonna Win: The Hurt Locker. The race is hyped with the Kathryn Bigelow-James Cameron exes-turned-rivals shtick, but no one will contend that Avatar was a better film. In fact, most are agreeing the film was shit in every non-technical regard. For all the cause-head voters in the Academy, The Hurt Locker affords a rare opportunity to criticize not just the Iraq war (of which the film did a tastefully absentee job), but the actual soldiers themselves. It echoes the spirit of Platoon 25 years later, which swept Best Picture and Director in 1986.

    Who Should Win: Up in the Air. Jason Reitman again shows his uncanny ability to crossover genre barriers and capture the essence of American society in cross-section: millennials who fear mortality, baby boomers who ignore it, the struggles of individuals and organizations to adapt to rapid change, and the rate at which American society has disconnected itself from one another via technology. Reitman expertly captures the ultra-modern, from the economy's far-reaching impact (Detroit layoffs? Christmas morning. Honeymoon? We'll take picture instead) to the advent of sexting (and not via SMS, mind you... this is the age of Blackberry Messenger.) Oh, by the way, the characters and chemistry are fantastic. Oh and it's a realistic romantic comedy.

    Sleeper: Inglourious Basterds. It may be coincidence that the Academy expanded the Best Picture nomination field in one of the weakest nominee classes of all time (of all time.) Basterds was a horribly overrated movie, benefiting greatly from the Tarantino Effect. It's no secret that Tarantino is one of the most highly-regarded directors never to win an Oscar, and if you were gonna over-reward a single film for a director's lifetime body of work (think The Departed), this would certainly be a good year to do it.

    Best Director
    Nominees:
    Avatar
    The Hurt Locker
    Inglourious Basterds
    Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
    Up in the Air

    Who's Gonna Win: The Hurt Locker. Bigelow tastefully attacked a difficult subject, brought out the best in a no-name cast, and kept the tension high for the entire movie. Plus a female director managed to make a war film feel authentic. The Academy will eat that up. And she was married to James Cameron.

    Who Should Win: The Hurt Locker. But not because she was married to James Cameron.

    Sleeper: Inglourious Basterds. For all the reasons its a sleeper for Best Picture.

    Best Actor in a Leading Role
    Nominees:
    Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
    George Clooney, Up in the Air
    Colin Firth, A Single Man
    Morgan Freeman, Invictus
    Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

    Who's Gonna Win: Jeff Bridges. Better than Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler and he faces pretty light competition.

    Who Should Win: Jeff Bridges.

    Sleeper: Morgan Freeman. Another category that lacked the "wow" standout performances, except for Bridges. If the Academy sees Bridges' performance as too much Mickey Rourke, Morgan Freeman could sneak out a win as credit for an entire career of artful acting.

    Best Actor in a Supporting Role
    Nominees:
    Matt Damon, Invictus
    Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
    Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
    Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
    Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

    Who's Gonna Win: Christoph Waltz. The calm, cool, eloquent, eccentric Nazi Jew Hunter was fearsome on camera for an hour and a half before he ever lifted a violent finger. I have to admit, I haven't seen Harrelson or Plummer's performance, but I really can't imagine it would be better than Waltz. I am almost surprised Waltz wasn't nominated as a leading actor, because despite the myriad characters, he stands out head and shoulders above the rest of the Basterds cast.

    Who Should Win: Christoph Waltz.

    Sleeper: Woody Harrelson or Christopher Plummer. Because I know it isn't going to be Matt Damon or Stanley Tucci.

    Best Actress in a Leading Role
    Nominees:
    Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
    Helen Mirren, The Last Station
    Carey Mulligan, An Education
    Gabourey Sidibe, Precious...
    Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

    Who's Gonna Win: Gabourey Sidibe. If the fat black girl wins, everyone feels better.

    Who Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe. She also gave a great performance.

    Best Actress in a Supporting Role
    Nominees:
    Penelope Cruz, Nine
    Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
    Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
    Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
    Mo'Nique, Precious...

    Who's Gonna Win: Maggie Gyllenhaal. The Academy will see the chemistry with Jeff Bridges in an great movie.

    Who Should Win: Anna Kendrick. George Clooney's foil so perfectly represents her gender and generation in a fantastic film.

    Sleeper: Penelope Cruz. The Academy is a sucker for her, and the multi-talent aspect of Nine may be enough to impress.

    Others
    Best Animated Feature Film: Up. (Sleeper: Coraline)
    Best Art Direction: Avatar. (Sleeper: n/a)
    Best Cinematography: Avatar (Sleeper: Inglourious Basterds)
    Best Costume Design: Nine (Sleeper: Coco Before Chanel)

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    Bigelow will win best director fo' sho (overlooking the more deserving Reitman) but I still reckon Avatar will get Best Picture (overlooking the more deserving anything else released this year). It doesn't matter that it was essentially a critical flop in the ways that should count. So was Titanic. Plus, they're not going to want to side with either Cameron or Bigelow so they'll give the two big awards to each of them and then the TV, papers, blogs, man on the street etc. can spend the next few months arguing over which of the two awards can be seen as more of a triumph between the two ex lovers. It's too juicy a story to pass up.

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    feel like funkin' it up gwahir's Avatar
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    Up should beat Avatar for art direction. Avatar was a six-year-old piano virtuoso showing off how fast he can play "Flight of the Bumblebees"; Up was god-damned art.



    edit: should, but won't.

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    Merry fucking Christmas Atmosfear's Avatar
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    Yeah, Gwahir, I actually agree with you, but I feel like Avatar and Up are the front-runners so it's not fair to call it a sleeper.

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    feel like funkin' it up gwahir's Avatar
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    i see, i see

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