Quarter-mile-wide asteroid coming close to Earth (YU55)

**Mad Pino Rage** · 11-06-2011, 05:30 PM

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/20...?newsfeed=true

Astronomers around the world have readied their telescopes to catch a glimpse of a speeding ball of rock that will hurtle past the Earth on Tuesday night.
Scientists say the asteroid, which is about a quarter of a mile wide, will pass inside the moon's orbit and come within 198,000 miles (319,000km) of Earth at 23.28GMT. This is the closest a tracked object this size has come to the planet.
Nasa calculates the 400-metre (1,312ft) wide asteroid, known as 2005 YU55, has roughly has a one in 10 million chance of hitting Earth in the next century. Were it to strike, the collision would unleash the equivalent of several thousand megatonnes of TNT.

One in 10 million is good odds.

Odds = 1 : 280000 of being struck by lightning
According to the National Weather Service, during the past 30 years (1979-2008) lightning killed an average of 58 people each year. Documented injuries average about 300 per year.

Odds of winning Powerball (American lottery system)
$3 prize is 1 in 61.74
$4 is 1 in 123.48
$7 is 1 in 787.17
$100 is 1 in 13,644.24
$10,000 is 1 in 723,144.64
$200,000 is 1 in 5,138,133.00
Grand Prize is 1 in 195,249,054.00

Every so often someone does win the grand prize and people are struck by lightning quite frequently. So how good are our odds, really?

**thank mr skeltal** · 11-06-2011, 05:49 PM

The problem with your logic is tens if not hundreds of thousands of people are playing powerball. There is but one participant, the Earth, in the asteroid scenario.
The odds of this would be more like someone in your close family winning the powerball jackpot... ain't gonna happen.

**Mad Pino Rage** · 11-06-2011, 07:22 PM

WE GONNA FRICKEN DIEEE MANNNNN

**Atmosfear** · 11-07-2011, 01:56 PM

Originally Posted by Rick Scarf

The problem with your logic is tens if not hundreds of thousands of people are playing powerball. There is but one participant, the Earth, in the asteroid scenario.
The odds of this would be more like someone in your close family winning the powerball jackpot... ain't gonna happen.

If you have 4 people in your close family, and they all play exactly once, that's still more likely.